La Liga Betting: Free-scoring Atletico can mount serious title challenge

European Leagues / Dan Fitch / 27 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

The "new Maradona" is central to the birth of something big at Atletico Madrid, says Dan Fitch.

Imagine you're building a house. You're at the stage of putting the roof on, when you find that someone's nicked the door. So you replace the door, only to find the windows have been taken out. You get the glaziers round, but whilst your back's turned, a side wall goes missing. Sounds a nightmare doesn't it? Even Sarah Beeney would have sympathy for such a plight.

Well this is exactly what most football managers go through when trying to build a team. You go into a transfer window thinking that you need just a central midfielder and a left back to make your squad complete, only for a bigger club to flutter their eyelashes at your star striker. The striker gets his dream move, which leads to your winger requesting a transfer because he thinks that the club can't hold onto its best players. Before you know it you're back to square one, being just a couple of elusive players away from having a complete squad.

Atletico Madrid are possibly the most exciting team in Spain at the moment. They're brilliant going forward and a bit dodgy at the back, which is always a pleasing dynamic for the neutral. It's possible that they will mount a title challenge this season. Their first team is certainly capable of beating anyone, though their squad might lack the depth for them to last the pace.

It's vital that Atletico achieve at least Champions League qualification. Otherwise it might be very difficult for them to retain their jewel in the crown, Sergio Aguero. If he goes, who knows how easy it will be to hang onto other stars like Diego Forlan and Rodriguez. Head coach Javier Aguirre would be back to square one, trying to rebuild a team that had been nearly complete.

Aguero is the latest in the long line of 'next Maradonas'. Far from disassociating himself from the tag, he's got Maradona's daughter pregnant, making sure that his name will always be linked with Argentina's favourite son. So he's a man who can handle pressure and so far this season Aguero has been in great form, scoring three goals from Atletico's opening four games.

But he's not the only Atletico forward to be among the goals. Liverpool fans will remember the name of Florent Sinama-Pongolle, but won't recall him ever producing the form that he's shown since joining Atletico this summer. The French forward has scored five goals this season, including a brace in the 2-1 midweek win over Getafe.

On Sunday, Atletico host a Sevilla side unbeaten this season. Like the home side, Sevilla are full of goals, but also liable to leak them at their own end. The summer saw some of their more established stars from the Ramos era jump ship, as Christian Poulsen joined Juventus and Daniel Alves left for Barcelona. Sevilla haven't replaced their outgoing players with anyone of great standing, so it is perhaps something of a surprise that they've started the season so brightly.

The one thing that this game should guarantee is goals. Sevilla's games this season have averaged 2.75 goals per match, whilst Atletico's have averaged 3.5. Atletico have won their first two home games of the season by a 4-0 scoreline and won their home game against Sevilla last season 4-3. Seven out of the last nine La Ligas meeting between these sides have produced over 2.5 goals. I think you can see where I'm going with this...

Over 2.5 goals can be backed at [1.76], with over 3.5 goals available at [2.92]. Atletico won both of their La Liga encounters with Sevilla last season, with Aguero scoring on both occasions. A home win can be backed at [2.2], with the draw [3.5] and Sevilla [3.6].

If Atletico are to have serious title aspirations this year, then these are the type of home games that they need to win. I think they'll just nick it by a single goal, though the score is more likely to be 5-4 than 1-0.