Keep a cool head and avoid "groupthink"

European Leagues / Dave Farrar / 24 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

Dave Farrar discusses humility in the commentary box and the perils of consensus punting.

Sports broadcasters in the USA talk a lot. The style of commentary in this country is to let the game do the talking and adhere to a "less is more" philosophy, but when you watch the NFL, for example, there's no question that you're tuning in to have a match called for you by three guys whose job is to let you see the world through their eyes for four quarters.

It's not only the NFL: a couple of weeks ago, I watched the Michael Katsidis v Juan Diaz title fight, and heard the HBO commentary team call pretty much every round for Diaz, overwhelmingly so. I thought Diaz was winning, but on the basis of the HBO analysis, he was a [1.1] shot after eight rounds. When the fight went to the judges scorecards, Diaz was indeed called as the winner, but only on a split decision. The judges had probably got it wrong, as the victory was more convincing than that, but a comment by the bullish but surprisingly likeable HBO ringside presenter Max Kellerman is worth further analysis.

In that slightly spooky way American broadcasters have of staring straight at the camera a la Boycott or Stevo, he told us firstly that it was one of the most disgraceful pieces of judging he'd ever seen. He was probably right, but what he said next was both an impressive sign of humility and an unwitting lesson to anyone who likes a bet. He said: "Maybe all of us in the commentary team tonight were guilty of "Groupthink", and we allowed ourselves to convince each other that the fight was going a certain way, rather than each come to our own conclusions."

For anyone who punts in running, the Orwellian sounding "Groupthink" is one of the deadliest enemies of all.

How many times in the build up to a weekend or to a Champions League night have you spoken to friends or fellow punters and allowed yourself to be convinced of something which, deep down, you don't really believe?

When Roma played Real Madrid last season over 2.5 goals was trading at [1.84] which I felt was much too short. After an hour chatting to friends, all of whom saw the game as a wide open attacking spectacle, I allowed myself to be persuaded that over 2.5 was the play after all, and was very lucky that a last minute goal saved the bet. Groupthink had stopped me considering the basics of value and analysis, and nearly cost me money.

I'm sure that this story will ring true with many of you. Betting in running on a football match is a classic example of how you can be caught out in this way. If a game has a couple of early goals, the combination of commentator's excitability, pundits, and the people you are watching with can convince you that it's developing into a classic, and that there is no way on this earth that it will finish 2-0, or 1-1. Having been seduced by that idea, fast forward to the game entering its final quarter with the same scoreline, and your bet on over 3.5 goals at odds on no longer looks quite so appealing. That's Groupthink at work.

If you accept the fundamentals of this, then the solution is to be aware of the dangers, and bet the other way. A colleague of mine makes most of his money by taking advantage of overreactions, by keeping a clear head and working out what is really going to happen, rather than what it seems is going to happen.

We all know that emotion should be taken out of gambling, but that doesn't just mean not backing Europe to win the Ryder Cup because you want them to, it also means governing your own emotional reaction to whichever game you are watching.

A lot of European football teams, Lyon and Juventus being obvious examples this season, score a goal relatively early in a game, and then are happy and good enough to win the game by a goal or two to nil. And yet the chances are that you will have been able to lay over 2.5 goals at odds on straight after that goal has gone in.

Your own analysis of the statistics will give you a much better chance of winning than the kind of second hand knowledge you can be susceptible to when talking with friends. Be strong, trust your own cool headed opinions, and steer clear of Groupthink.