Football Betting: The Ballon D'Or is about more than goals and trophies

European Leagues / Dave Farrar / 26 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

Dave Farrar is so uncomfortable with the prospect of Cristiano Ronaldo's impending coronation as European Footballer of the Year that he is already looking forward to next year's award and the events which will determine its winner.

Next Monday night, after a suitably awkward ceremony in Paris, we'll know who has won the 2008 Ballon D'Or.

Cristiano Ronaldo is the red hot favourite to succeed Kaka as the European Footballer of the Year. It's tempting to ignore the award completely this year, as the exclusion from the shortlisted 30 of Andres Iniesta makes it very hard to take seriously.

After a year of understated brilliance Iniesta would have been in my top ten at the very least, but the politics of France Football magazine mean that the likes of Yuri Zhirkov, Rafael Van der Vaart, Ruud Van Nistelrooy, Pepe and Emmanuel Adebayor are considered more worthy than the baby faced genius from the Camp Nou. Nonsense.

The received opinion seems to be that Ronaldo is the obvious winner, and he'd be in my top three, although I believe that Iniesta's friend Xavi would be the more worthy successor to the likes of Alfredo Di Stefano, Raymond Kopa, Michel Platini and Marco Van Basten. There's just something about Ronaldo holding that trophy, and beaming out from the front page of next Tuesday's France Football, that doesn't seem right, brilliant though he is. Maybe because I'm old fashioned about the way that players behave, and carry themselves, and maybe because I rather pompously believe that being European Footballer of the Year is about more than goals scored and trophies won.

In a betting column, we should be looking into the more distant future, and I thought that it would be interesting to try and work out who will win next year's Ballon D'Or, and why. 2009 is an interesting year, as there is no major international trophy to sway voters, and the 96 journalists on the panel will have to come to their decision on the basis of what happens domestically. We can't bet on the 2009 Ballon D'Or, but we can gamble on the events that will shape it.

The key element in any decision will be the Champions League, and that throws up several thoughts. The best player in the world in most peoples' opinion is Lionel Messi and if he leads Barcelona to their third European title, then he will surely be a shoo-in. Barca are trading at [6.2] to win the Champions League, and if Messi keeps playing as he is, then you can effectively back him at that price for Ballon D'Or, as he would surely win it if Barca become European Champions.

Barca are rightly odds on to win La Liga, currently [1.55], and, while that's a bit short for me, they are certainly the favourites. There's a danger that votes could be split between Messi, Etoo, Xavi and Iniesta, but I don't see that happening as the little man from Argentina is so clearly the leader of the team.

Since Paolo Rossi won the award back in 1982, only four times (it will be five if Ronaldo wins on Monday) has the Ballon D'Or been given to a player from outside Serie A or La Liga. With the English Premier League so powerful, it would be foolish to ignore another English based player, so we have three leagues to choose from.

Chelsea are the likeliest winners of the Premier League, trading at [1.9] at the moment, and they are [6.0] favourites for the Champions League. If Chelsea do sweep the boards, then Frank Lampard would be favourite to be only the fifth English player to win the award, although Deco would have an outside chance.

If you fancy Ronaldo for a repeat (probably) win, then Manchester United are [4.2] for the Premier League and [7.4] to retain the Champions League. Wayne Rooney is widely admired around Europe, and would have an outside chance if he finishes this season strongly and keeps performing as he has been doing for England.

The other English possibility is Steven Gerrard, and if you like Liverpool to propel him to personal glory, then they are [5.0] for the Premier League and [14.0] for the Champions League.

Our shortlist for 2009 is already six strong, and, with a respectful nod to Franck Ribery and Karim Benzema, Serie A is the only other likely source of a winner. I'm always mystified by those who argue the case for Zlatan Ibrahimovic: a very good player, but surely too inconsistent to drive Inter Milan to the Champions League. Mourinho's team are shaky favourites for Serie A, and too short at [7.4] for European glory. If you're a Zlatan fan, then the [7.6] about him finishing as Capocannoniere in Italy is the more attractive price.

He's four behind Diego Milito at the moment but that could change in a short space of time. I mentioned last week that both Alessandro Del Piero and Pavel Nedved have spoken positively about Juve's Champions League chances, and if Del Piero inspires the [20.0] shots to an unlikely win then he could crown his glorious career with the award he's always wanted.

So, barring an unlikely Champions League win by a team like Lyon or Bayern Munich or an inspired and improbable run of scoring by an Eto'o or Aguero, those are the likely candidates. My feeling is that, if Messi stays injury free, he will win Ballon D'Or next year. And, if that is the moment that we can stop referring to Cristiano Ronaldo as the European Footballer of the Year, then roll on next December.