European Leagues / Matthew Walton / 29 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Olympiacos and Panathinaikos show no signs of abating in their dominance of the Greek Super League and that means profit for punters, says Matthew Walton.

"This study shows that away from the usual ‘European bankers’ there are decent bets to be found - but only if you’re prepared to look."

You might think domestic two-horse races were confined to the likes Celtic & Rangers, Madrid & Barcelona or Ajax & PSV. Well, think again.

Look a bit further afield and you find other domestic top flights which have traditionally become little more than toss-of-a-coin affairs. Greece is a fine example where over the years the annual Super League title has been reduced to an exclusive Athens derby match between the capital's (and nation's) biggest clubs. In the red corner, Olympiacos, and in the green corner, Panathinaikos.

Olympiacos Piraeus (Olympiacos) are the most successful side in Greek football. Never relegated from the top flight, league winners in 12 of the last 13 years and national champions on a record 37 occasions. Panathinaikos themselves are no back-numbers. Like Olympiacos they too are ever-presents in the top flight, they last won the title in 2003/04 and stand second on the all-time list with 19 domestic titles.

Between them these two clubs have won 56 of 73 Super League titles (77%) since 1928 and the last side to break this monopoly was AEK Athens in 1993/94 - Athens being the third major force in Greek football, again based in the nation's principality.

It is dominance of major proportions, every bit as all-conquering as those more frequently quoted examples in Scotland, Spain or Holland ... and it doesn't look like stopping anytime soon.

Under the stewardship of the Brazilian, Zico, Olympiacos have started the current season in customarily impressive fashion. Played 8, won 7, drawn 1. Panathinaikos, with a new President (shipping magnate Nikos Pateras) installed last year, have Henk ten Cate at the helm. Their record this season? Played 8, won 7, drawn 1. These two are already 9 points clear of their nearest rivals and heading for yet another title showdown - in the outright market Olympiacos [1.96] edge Panathinaikos [2.12] with the rest of the field [26.0] bar.

In recent times both sides had added to their largely home-based squads with smatterings of international talent. Olympiacos bringing in the Brazilian trio of Leonardo, Diogo and big-money signing Dudu in the past 12 months along with former Premier League performers such as Raul Bravo (Leeds), Olof Mellberg (Aston Villa) and Matt Derbyshire (Blackburn Rovers). Panathinaikos have their own trio of Brazilians (Gabriel, Cleyton and ex-Gunner, Gilberto Silva) but with slightly tighter purse strings their squad still lacks the strength of their 'eternal enemies'.

A fact borne out by recent performances. Olympiacos, winners of the last five titles, have amassed a home record in this period of P75 W65 D7 L3 (that's a huge 86% win ratio) and away it's a none too shabby either, P75 W42 D19 L14 (56% wins). By comparison, the Panathinaikos data reads W54 D14 L7 (home) and W39 D19 L17 (away) which equates to 72% and 52% win ratios. Good but not good enough to finish ahead of their main rivals for the title.

Such percentages would make Olympiacos [1.16] to win any given home match and [1.78] for away matches. As for Panathinaikos, it would be nearer [1.38] at home and [1.92] away.

Interesting then to see Olympiacos at [1.62] for this weekend's visit to lowly Atromitos whilst Panathinaikos trade at [1.3] when they entertain Panionios on Sunday.

No surprise, in some respects, to see two such sides 'over bet' in the market - it happens in any league where two teams enjoy this level of domination. But it is worth remembering that both sides are playing relatively weak opposition so the odds, taking this into account, are probably about right.

This study shows that away from the usual 'European bankers' there are decent bets to be found - but only if you're prepared to look. Many punters never look beyond the obvious - Madrid or Milan, Porto or PSV - but there are many other good opportunities all over the continent each weekend. Find the right team, find the profit.

Tags: Football betting tips, Greek football betting odds, Matthew Walton, Olympiacos, Panathinaikos