European Leagues / Bettorlogic / 08 May 2009 / Leave a comment

Bettorlogic look at the return to form and fitness of Kaka from a statistical perspective to tell us why Milan are a good bet to beat Juve this weekend plus how we can profit from the absences of Jagielka, Vedad Ibisevic and Cristiano Doni.

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Bettorlogic have compiled a report using our player analysis tool Player PRO highlighting the most important players that are likely to be missing and returning across Europe's major leagues this weekend.

NB Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least an hour of the match unless otherwise stated. The sample is based on a team's home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.

AC Milan v Juventus

Kaká

Kaka's return to form and fitness has inspired Milan to a run of five straight wins, during which the Brazilian has netted four times in three different matches. This weekend, they host Juventus and the match could not have come at a better time for Milan as Juve have failed to win in five matches and have slipped five points behind the Rossoneri in the race for second.

Since the start of last season, Kaka has started 52 of Milan's 72 matches, the Rossoneri's win rate dropping from 62% (losing just 15%) with the talismanic forward, to 35% without (losing 40%). From week 15 of last season, Milan have been almost perfect at home when Kaka has played, collecting 53 points from a possible 57, compared to just 17 of a possible 30 when he's been missing. In fact, if Milan had replicated their 'with Kaka' record (W17-D6-L1) when without him this season, they'd lead Inter by four points.

Kaka has played 13 matches against top-six teams since the start of last season, Milan winning seven (W7-D2-L4), including five of their last six. Indeed, Milan have lost all four of the matches he's missed. With Juve in disarray and Milan enjoying their best season form, the Rossoneri look value at 1.88.

Round-up

Everton v Spurs

Phil Jagielka's season-ending knee injury could have been a major blow to Everton's chances of a good end to the season and in particular the FA Cup final at the end of the month. However, the signs are that the Toffees back-line is made of stern stuff. In the 13 games since the start of last season that Jagielka has missed, Everton's PPG average has increased by 20%.

More impressively, their results without the former Sheffield United defender include two away draws against Chelsea and 16 points from a possible 18 at home. With Joseph Yobo proving a more than adequate replacement, Everton can continue their run of successes at home with another win against Spurs and are available to back at 2.38.

Atalanta v Genoa

Cristiano Doni is a major absentee for Atalanta this weekend through suspension. Of the 11 matches their inspirational captain has missed since the start of last season, Atalanta have lost five (45%), compared to a 20% loss rate when he plays. The major reason for this has been a lack of goals, Atalanta scoring only 12 goals in the 11 matches without Doni, compared to 49 in the 25 when he starts.

Atalanta also have problems in defence with Leonardo Talamonti likely to be missing through injury and Gianpaolo Bellini definitely out following his red card last week. At home, Atalanta have gone W11-D2-L2 with Talamonti, conceding just 10 goals, while without him they have lost six of the last nine - and in the 21 matches he's missed since the start of last season, they've conceded an average of 1.52 goals per game.

Genoa also have much more still to play for as they chase a Champions League place and can be backed at [2.34] to win.

Hoffenheim v Koln

Hoffenheim's season has fallen apart since losing Vedad Ibisevic to injury 13 games ago and this week they host a Koln team that also have nothing left to play for. Ibisevic's 18 goals had propelled Hoffe to the top of the Bundesliga but after winning their first match without him, they haven't won since - drawing seven and losing five.

Goals have dried up completely, scoring 42 goals in the 17 matches with Ibisevic, but only 12 in 13 games without him - including failing to score in six of the last nine. Hoffenheim are currently as short as 2.02 to win and look a good laying opportunity.