European Football Betting: World hum and how Kaka's failed transfer saved football

European Leagues / Dave Farrar / 28 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Dave Farrar on obscure travel websites, why Kaka's refusal to join Man City was a breath of fresh air for the game, the inconsistency of Sevilla and why all football this weekend is somewhat overshadowed by the Superbowl.

The American novelist Don DeLillo first used the phrase "the world hum" in an early book called The Names, and since then the idea has been poached many times, significantly by Martin Amis, and rather oddly by an obscure and enthusiastic travel website.

De Lillo has written brilliantly about sport (check out "End Zone" and the mighty "Underworld"), and his feeling that there is a general "hum" which sets the tone for the way the world is feeling can be applied more skittishly to football, for the purposes of this column at least.

The failed transfer of Kaka from AC Milan to Manchester City has changed the tone of football, the hum, I think for the better. I spoke to a senior BBC commentator at the weekend, and he told me that he had seriously thought about looking for another sport to cover if Kaka had gone to Eastlands, and a friend of mine who's a particularly passionate Liverpool fan was thinking of sending his season ticket to the Premier League and telling them that he was giving up on football if the transfer went through.

That, he decided, would be the moment that enough was finally enough. Both views echo my own, but the pictures of Kaka waving a Milan shirt outside of the window of his apartment last week changed the football hum from a low grumble to something approaching a cheer, and even though the spectre of money taking over entirely hasn't gone away, there was a feeling that common sense, and dare I say decency, had won the battle, if not the war.

With the free scoring Bundesliga set to return at the weekend, and with goals flying in in both Serie A and La Liga last Sunday, there are many reasons for fans and punters alike to be cheerful this week, and collectively raise the football hum.

There's a midweek Serie A programme, in which my match to watch will be the tussle between crisis clubs Fiorentina and Napoli. Napoli have lost five games in a row away from home, are still without their best player Marek Hamsik and travel to a Fiorentina side who are still fuming after yet another refereeing decision cost them in Turin at the weekend. Sparks should fly, but even without Adrian Mutu, La Viola are rightly favourites against Edy Reja's fading team. The [7.0] on offer for them to be victorious by a goal to nil looks a solid bet.

Both Palermo and Roma are finding form, and the match between the two seems certain to produce goals, while the styles of Catania and Inter could lead to a typically dull game. Over 2.5 goals in Palermo is trading at [1.85], although over 3.5 may be the better call at [3.3]. The unders in Catania are available at [1.85]. Both bets are recommended, with Sicily seemingly in for two very contrasting games.

The second legs of the Copa Del Rey are played on Wednesday and Thursday, and don't think that the low scoring first legs necessarily mean that the second legs will be the same. Barcelona may not be intent on playing a first choice side at home against their city rivals Espanyol, after a 0-0 draw in the first leg, but that game was almost deliberately cagey as were all the matches bar the one between Sevilla and Valencia.

Over 2.5 goals at the Camp Nou are way too short at [1.55] and this is a game which is better watched - Barca, after all, are always worth a look, and they, more than any other team in Europe, make sure that the football hum is always raised an octave or two when they take the field. Watch very carefully for team news in this competition, as coaches have very different agendas with regard to the Cup. You shouldn't even think about having a bet until you know exactly who's playing, and one match which I would definitely ignore from a betting perspective is Valencia against Sevilla. The team who won back-to-back UEFA Cups in 2006 and 2007 are one of the most frustratingly inconsistent teams in Europe, and trying to second guess how they will play will cost you money.

By the way, one final gambling thought for the week, and one event that will make more of an impact on the sporting world than football matches in Sicily. During the recording of the Superbowl Podcast (which is available on this site) there was a common theme amongst all of the contributors: the Arizona Cardinals are overpriced at [3.3] to win their first ever Championship. Those with the opinions were the kind of people that you and I should listen to, and so get on, and hope that Kurt Warner can create one of the sporting comeback stories of the century so far, and become the latest hero to lift the sporting hum towards fever pitch.