European Leagues / Matthew Walton / 29 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Magical" Matthew Walton looks at the away records of such European giants as Barcelona, Juventus and Bayern Munich and questions whether the prices we see on these sides on Betfair each week are indeed the correct ones....

In the world of betting, no word is so widely used and so widely misused as that of 'value'.

To many, of course, it is the watch-word by which their daily trading is regulated. No bet can be considered, no money can be risked, without the v-word being given due consideration.

However, to some it is merely the way to justify an often ludicrous wager ... and, thereafter, to explain away its subsequent demise.

Our view, as you can well imagine, sides more with the former approach and just to illustrate the point for those who still prefer to bet more with madness than method, following a random approach over a reasoned strategy, here's a simply example.

We scoured the top divisions of Europe to ascertain where the 'value' lies amongst the top clubs. The elite sides of the major domestic national league were scrutinised over a five year period. All the matches considered were those played away from home - games where traders often get their fingers burnt by taking way below the odds.

Here's what we found out.

Now, of course, examining the top divisions from Portugal, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Holland and the English Premier League we must be mindful of the fact that different national divisions have more or less strength in depth than others. As such, we're bound to discover that some sides have higher success rates and some will be lower.

That subject we'll come onto later because for now we're dealing purely with domestic markets and any cross-referencing of data between countries is going to be a little misleading.

Taken by country, the percentage of away matches won has Barcelona 47% and Real Madrid 51% in Spain, Bayern Munich 49% in Germany, Ajax at 59% in Holland and Lyon at 57% in France. However, Porto boast a 61% record in Portugal.

Over in Italy we find Inter Milan on 51% and both AC Milan 54% and Juventus on 54%. By comparison, in the English Premier League we've Liverpool on just 37%, Arsenal 48%, Manchester United 59% and Chelsea with a whopping 66% strike rate on the road.

That's all away league matches over the five year period in question. The best part of 100 games in places like Spain, France and England, over 80 in Germany and Holland.

When we convert these percentages into physical odds, this is where we see the use (and so, misuse) of the that dreaded word, value.

The simple fact of the matter is that, as we know, a 50% win rate equates to odds of [2.0]. If the team in question is winning more than 50% of their matches then they deserve to be odds-on and if they win less then they should be trading at a higher mark than even money.

Ask yourself how many sides buck this trend? Strictly speaking, from the list of teams mentioned above, Liverpool should be trading (on average) at around [2.63] for any given away match bearing in mind they only win a measly 37% of their games away from Anfield.

And were Liverpool this price for their recent trip to the JJB Stadium against Wigan ? They sure weren't.

Same applies with various other European examples. Barcelona, despite an all-conquering season this year in the Primera Liga, have only won 47% of their away games in the last five years. That equates to odds of [2.10]. For their next away match in Spain, against Santander, you'll be lucky to get bigger than [1.57] about Pep Guardiola's side.

Real Madrid are no different. A win percentage of 51% during the study period also brings into question the value of taking [1.62] for their coming visit to Numancia.

Over in Italy, the mighty Inter Milan are winners of 51% of their away games since the 2003/04 season and should really trade at just shy of [2.0] to win away from the San Siro.

Sure, so they won their latest away match at Catania but that doesn't explain away the fact that odds of [1.80] for the match were hardly representative of great value.

Even the mighty Bayern Munich, the perennial champions of Germany, win only 49% of their away matches. That should make for odds just a scrap bigger than even money for their road games. Ok, you'll beat that mark, just, this coming weekend against Hamburg (mind you, no easy trip) but many times in the Bundesliga you'll find Klinsmann's side the wrong side of [2.0].

And just to conclude this part of our discussion, it would be remiss of us not to remind you that a poor value backing proposition, quite obviously, can very often mean a good value laying opportunity. Betfair, as we know, provides this dual money-making function - so if you see this kind of bad value, and you surely will, then 'lay it'.

Naturally, by the same token, there are sides who record numerous victories on the road and therefore offer better chances of success. And good value means ... 'back it'.

Chelsea have won an incredible 66% of their away games in the last five seasons. That makes for odds of [1.50]. The Blues are bigger than [3.0] for their weekend visit to Liverpool.

Porto are also big away specialists. A winning percentage of 61% puts them in around [1.63] for every away match and at Belenenses this weekend you'll find the defending champions in at a scrap of value at [1.67].

Likewise both Lyon in France and Ajax in Holland demand close inspection. Neither play away during the next week but both deserve watching whenever their away odds are bigger than [1.80].

Clearly, we can be too simplistic with our findings - making sweeping generalisations about teams on the basis of an 'average' win percentage. After all, there's a big difference between playing Reggina and Roma, Seville or Sporting Gijon. You do need to fit the figures in with the specific matches you're studying.

But what we have highlighted here is the simple need to take that one further step beyond the obvious view that 'xyz are a top side, they're playing away from home but they'll still win'.

They might well win (like Inter Milan above) but falling into the trap of bad value betting can cost you a lot of money in the long run. You have to learn to spot value and take it or, just as importantly, recognise bad value and lay it.

Also, as we pointed out earlier in the piece, don't take your approach to one country and blindly impose it on another. Each national league has its own unique data and so deserves individual attention. Comparing one league against the other, in this instance, isn't helpful.

At the end of the day, thankfully, Betfair provides the two methods by which to profit from this data. There is good value to be found, just as there is bad value. You can actually find both everywhere, as we've shown, just make sure you act accordingly on the exchange when you encounter it!

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