European Football Betting: How patterns of performance can lead to profit

European Leagues / Matthew Walton / 07 February 2010 / Leave a Comment

Ronaldinho's AC Milan win between 65-75% of their matches every season

"However, when such a break occurs don’t expect it to be long before these quality sides return to winning ways - for example, at any given time this season, Real Madrid, Manchester United and Porto have only gone one game without a win i.e. after every draw or defeat during the present campaign they all won next time out."

"Magical" Matthew Walton goes in search of results trends amongst the top European football teams to ensure long-term betting profits.

Debates over the 'laws of probability' are commonplace in betting circles.

Some people argue that a coin which lands on heads five times in succession is more likely to be tails on the sixth spin, others say that if the ball lands on a black number nine times in a row on a roulette wheel then you should put everything you own on a red number coming next.

And if you believe this philosophy ... the advice is to enjoy your money whilst you've still got it!

But this argument flags up an interesting angle concerning the win market of certain football matches and one which the vast majority of punters - and especially these 'all in' merchants - might well find enlightening.

Taking the top sides in Europe, whatever the league, they are expected to win more or less every match they play. But, upon investigation, each season they only average around a 65%-75% win ratio. That's Porto or PSV, Munich or Milan, Barcelona or Bordeaux - all win approximately the same number of matches each season.

And it's the winning/non-winning sequences within these seasons which interests us here.

For example, in the last five seasons, the longest Bayern Munich have ever gone without winning a league match is 3 games. The same goes for PSV, Olympiacos and Porto.

By the same token, during this time the longest consecutive winning runs are Inter Milan in 2006/07 (17), Bordeaux and Manchester United in 2008/09 (11) and both Barcelona and Real Madrid, also last season, (10).

You can see where we're going here and why certain dedicated followers of betting fashion will spend a little more time from now on looking at the W/L/D sequences of the respective top sides in Europe.

This season Bayern, currently, and PSV have strung together the longest winning runs of 7 straight wins with Chelsea, Barca and Bordeaux (6 apiece) coming next. In fact, the most common trend throughout a season is for the leading sides to win 5 or 6 games on the spin before a draw or a loss breaks up the sequence.

However, when such a break occurs don't expect it to be long before these quality sides return to winning ways - for example, at any given time this season, Real Madrid, Manchester United and Porto have only gone one game without a win i.e. after every draw or defeat during the present campaign they all won next time out.

Our research has produced several noteworthy findings (1) rather surprisingly the average length of winning runs isn't as long as you think it is (2) but similarly losing runs aren't that long either! (3) longer winning sequences tend to come nearer the start than the end of a season (4) the quality of the league makes little difference to the length of sequences - don't expect long consecutive winning runs only to be found in Holland or Greece or very short ones in England or Spain (5) this data offers the best returns when used to predict the breaking of a sequence, not merely its continuation.

And the last point is key. As a side keeps winning (or not winning for that matter) their odds will tend to follow that trend, shortening or lengthening over time as the run continues. Using this kind of data to predict the end of a sequence will often lead to securing the best possible odds - opposing the market when it is at its most extreme.
.

And so when noted, these statistics highlight very useful trends upon which betting, or staking, systems can be based. Clearly, as above, price has to be factored into the equation but for those punters who wish to back a top side determined to return to winning ways or those who simply fancy laying an over-bet team whose winning run looks set to end, this method of viewing the season in a sequential manner is worth exploring on Betfair.