Bundesliga Betting: Diego-less Bremen can be held by Bielefeld

European Leagues / Razhan Miran / 15 August 2008 / Leave a Comment

Raz Miran updates us on the news that has made the headlines in the Bundesliga over the summer and looks ahead to the opening weekend's betting opportunities.

Following the relative German success at the European championships earlier this summer, a rather subdued pre-season has followed. With little transfer activity of note, the biggest talking point has been the high profile managerial changes. Jurgen Klinsmann takes over at Bayern Munich under the watchful eye of Beckenbauer, and after a slow start he will surely be feeling the pressure at the helm of one of footballs most expecting institutions.

Klinsmann of course inherits an impressive squad, especially after Hitzfeld's endeavours in the transfer market last summer. Fifty million pounds later they had mustered a team that walked its way to the league and cup double. Bayern have not spent a single penny this term, however strengthening with Tim Borowski and Hans-Jorg Butt, both on free transfers. Although not as exciting as last year's arrivals, which included Ribery and Klose, both may prove to be crucial. Michael Rensing will fill the great Oliver Kahn's gloves in goal, whilst Butt will provide good cover and possibly challenge for that number one shirt in the future. Borowski will add versatility and solidity to an already very experienced midfield.

The objectives for Bayern are clear this year. Retain the Bundesliga title, and challenge for the Champions League, all the while playing good attacking football as demanded by the Kaiser upon Klinsmann's appointment. As far as the league is concerned, I cannot see any a real threat from the rest of the field, although I doubt it will be as comfortable as last season's ten point gap. The Champions League however will certainly prove to be a bridge to far for the inexperienced coach.

Bayern's campaign kicks off this Friday at home to a Hamburg side whom themselves have been through a similar transition. A change of management has brought with it an air of optimism, despite losing their talisman Rafael Van Der Vaart to Real Madrid. Martin Jol's tenure as Hamburg manager has already seen him win more silverware than during his entire spell at Tottenham, with impressive displays in the Emirates Cup. Although Hamburg simply do not have the fire power to challenge for the title, a top four finish may be a realistic target. Bayern are comfortable favourites for this fixture, but I do not believe it will be as straight forward as the odds suggest, especially with Ribery, Toni and Demichelis all missing through injury. Expect goals and the [1.94] on over 2.5 goals may prove a good investment.

Elsewhere in the Bundesliga this weekend, Schalke play hosts to an unpredictable Hannover. Schalke without question pose the greatest threat to Bayern's dominance. Ex-FC Twente head coach Fred Rutten, who enjoyed a wonderful season last year leading Twente to Champions League qualification at the expense of Ajax, begins an exciting reign at Schalke. Rutten has brought with him Dutch Euro 2008 star Orlando Engelaar, and PSV's Jefferson Farfan - whom are both considered to be the Bundesliga's most high profiled signings in an otherwise quiet summer.

Rutten's major competitive debut instilled further hopes for the year to come, when they comfortably disposed of a dangerous Atletico Madrid side one-nil in Gelsenkirchen on Wednesday night. Hannover will not prove to be such worthy opponents, and although strengthening in attack with Jan Schlaudraff and Mikael Forsell, they may find that bettering last year's eighth place finish a difficult feat. I cannot see beyond a Schalke home win on Saturday so take the [1.64] whilst the layers on Betfair are still feeling generous.

Another of the challengers for Bayern's crown this year, as with every year since their 2004 success, are Werder Bremen. Bremen finished second last season, ten points adrift of the champions and will be hoping to close the gap, which unfortunately I can only see widening. Werder have lost a few influential players this summer, without investing in suitable replacements. Borowski has of course left, as well as Amaury Bischoff to Arsenal.

They face relegation candidates Arminia Bielefeld away this weekend, however without their star man, and most probably Bundesliga's best player - Diego, who is away on Olympics duty. Diego's form will decide Bremen's season, and as this will most likely be the Brazilian's last year in Germany, he will surely want to leave his mark. A Champions League place however, seems about as much as this team can achieve.

Without Diego they are a much weakened side, and I can see Bielefeld holding out for a draw. As we have come to expect with Bremen, there will be goals. My money is on the score draw so the 1-1 at [7.8] and the 2-2 at [14.5] will both be carrying Raz's hard-earned.

The majority of the transfer action this summer was at Felix Magath's Wolfsburg with no fewer than eight new faces at the Volkswagen Arena. The ex-Bayern coach has high hopes this season, especially after one of the Bundesliga's most surprising transfer coups of the summer, signing Palermo's Italian World Cup winning pair Andrea Barzagli and Christian Zaccardo. Many felt Wolfsburg overachieved last season, but the experienced Magath will be hoping to go one better this year and possibly fight for a Champions League place. A more realistic target may be Uefa Cup qualification once more, as even last year's fifth place finish may seem a tall order.

They face Christoph Daum's newly promoted FC Koln at home in their season opener. With a few impressive arrivals of their own, including Portuguese international Petit from Benfica, Koln are set to have a solid season and should comfortably avoid relegation. I can see Wolfsburg winning this one at [1.62] by the single goal but I'm not massively confident about it. This could be a tight affair so this match is perhaps best left alone betting-wise.

Finally we turn our attention to Sunday, and the last of this year's contenders - Stuttgart. After the incredible 2006/07 season which saw Stuttgart crowned as champions, last year was no doubt a case of championship hangover. Expectations were high, and they simply didn't deliver. Champions League participation surely affected their form, which saw them slump as low as thirteenth position at one stage. With the pressure off this year, and the experienced addition of both Khalid Boulahrouz and Jens Lehmann from the English Premiership, this season should have more in store for head coach Armin Veh and the Stuttgart faithful. Key to their success will certainly be the retention of their top marksman Mario Gomez, who will look to impress again this year after a disappointing summer with Germany.

Stuttgart must challenge for a top four place at the very minimum. They begin their campaign away to last year's Bundesliga Two champions, Borussia Munchengladbach, who will look to have a stable season clear of relegation. Possibly the strongest of the newly promoted sides, Munchengladbach will feel mid table to be an achievable objective, especially if they can make Borussia-Park into the stronghold it once was. For this reason I believe Stuttgart will be in for a tough game on Sunday, which is likely to go the way of the home side, who are available at [2.92]. Watch out for Munchengladbach's exciting young winger Marko Marin.

This promises to be an interesting yet unpredictable season in the Bundesliga, with several other sides including Leverkusen and Dortmund to surely have a big say in how the table will form. Klinsmann's introduction to club football is unlikely to be smooth, which may see Bayern slip up once or twice early on before hitting top gear. However once the dust has settled, I believe Bayern will show their class and push on for the title, with the rest of the challengers chasing those Champions League places. Bayern Munich should be backed at [1.59] to prove they're still top dogs in Germany.