Bettorlogic's injuries and suspensions column: Still missing the Totti

European Leagues / Bettorlogic / 06 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Francesco Totti has been out of action in recent weeks and Roma have missed him badly.

"While Roma have won 16 of 28 (57%) matches that Totti has played since the start of last season, they have only recorded six victories in the 21 games that he’s missed - their ppg falling by 40% from 1.89 with him to 1.14 without."

Bettorlogic cast their eyes over key players based in European leagues that will be missing this weekend and tell us how we punters can benefit from their absences, including star Roma man Francesco Totti.

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Bettorlogic have compiled a report using our player analysis tool Player PRO highlighting the most important players that are likely to be missing across Europe's major leagues this weekend.

NB Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least an hour of the match unless otherwise stated. The sample is based on a team's home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.

Hannover v Hamburg

Mladen Petrić

Hamburg have fallen off the top spot in the Bundesliga in recent weeks, following three games without a win. It's no coincidence this occurred at the same time as they lost their main striker Mladen Petrić, having already been deprived of their other first choice forward Paolo Guerrero since earlier in the current campaign.

Since joining Hamburg at the start of last season, Petric has played 24 and missed 20 matches for the Rothosen. With him, Hamburg have won two-thirds of their matches, lost only five times and average 2.12 points per game. Without the Croatian international they have a disappointing record of W9-D4-L7 including just one win in their last nine matches, losing five times in the process. Not surprisingly given this record, the number of goals Hamburg have scored has fallen from 1.79 per game with Petric to 1.45 without him.

Guerrero's stats are also significant with Hamburg's points per game falling by 12% from 1.93 in the 29 matches he has played since the start of last season to 1.69 in the 16 matches he has missed while their average goals scored has fallen from 1.79 per game to 1.38.

Look out for when both return from injury - January for Petric and March for Guerrero - as in their 12 matches together Hamburg have a record of nine wins and only one defeat with 2.25 goals scored per game compared to just 1.41 goals per game in the 32 matches where one or both have been missing.

Without their main strike duo Hamburg look set to continue their slide and with Hannover in a current run of three wins in four matches Die Roten look to be the side to support at [2.05] +0.25 goals on the Asian handicap.

Round-up

Inter v Roma

Roma are still without their inspirational captain Francesco Totti as they make the trip to runaway leaders Inter, while Juan is injured and Rodrigo Taddei suspended. Their 2-1 win at home against struggling Bologna last week was Roma's first success in nine matches without Totti, following four draws and four defeats. While Roma have won 16 of 28 (57%) matches that Totti has played since the start of last season, they have only recorded six victories in the 21 games that he's missed - their ppg falling by 40% from 1.89 with him to 1.14 without.

Juan has had a similar influence as Roma have won 12 of the 22 (55%) matches he has played in compared to just 10 of the 27 he has missed - within which they've suffered 11 losses and their goals conceded has risen by a massive 52% from 1.27 per game with him to 1.93 without. Moreover, they've failed to win away without Juan, drawing four and losing eight of the 12 trips he has missed since 08/09 with five defeats by two or more goals.

Inter are currently playing on a different level to Roma and will have taken huge confidence from their come-from-behind midweek European win so expect Inter to ram home their advantage and win well, the Nerazzurri [2.08] -1.0 goals on the Asian handicap.

Leverkusen v Frankfurt

Leverkusen moved a point clear at the top of the Bundesliga last weekend despite only managing a draw. This week they host Frankfurt who've already won away at second-placed Werder Bremen this season. Leverkusen are without their key playmaker Renato Augusto and in his absence they've drawn three of four matches this season. Further back, they've won 18 of their 38 matches that the Brazilian has played since the start of last season whilst only managing two successes in the seven games he's missed.

Whilst only a small sample, it makes Leverkusen look too short tonight; they can be layed at [1.49].

Monaco v Grenoble

Pierre Boya is injured for hapless Grenoble this week as they go looking for their first points of the season. Since arriving from Rapid Bucurest in January the Cameroonian striker has played 11 games, with three wins and only five defeats whilst four of the five goals Grenoble have scored this season have come in Boya's three appearances. However, in the 17 matches he's missed, Grenoble have won only once, losing 12, including all of their last nine - seven of which have been to nil, four of them 2-0 and three 1-0.

Monaco have made an excellent start to the season and should comfortably dispatch Grenoble. Splitting stakes between 1-0 [7.0] and 2-0 [6.2] looks the value bet.

Le Mans v Auxerre

Antonio Geder is suspended for Le Mans as they host in-form Auxerre. The Brazilian centre-back has played 28 of Le Mans' 49 matches since the start of last season with a record of eight wins, seven draws and 13 defeats - a ppg of 1.11. In his absence, Le Mans' ppg has fallen by 27% to 0.81 points per game and since taking seven points from the first three games he missed, they've lost 12 of the last 18 (W2-D4-L12).

Le Mans without one of their key defenders, Auxerre look good value at [3.0].