Bettorlogic's Injuries And Suspensions Column: Sevilla better off without Escude

European Leagues / Bettorlogic / 20 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

The stats show Sevilla are far better off without Julien Escude, who is out of this match through an injury he picked up whilst on international duty.

"Sevilla’s record without Escude is very strong and with Tenerife sitting in the bottom-half following their promotion, Sevilla should rack up another win at [1.80] although the clean sheet at [2.56] also looks good value for the Andalusian team."

Bettorlogic look at players who will be absent this weekend through injury and suspension throughout the major European leagues and tell us how we punters can benefit from knowing how their teams cope in their absences.

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Bettorlogic have compiled a report using our player analysis tool Player PRO highlighting the most important players that are likely to be missing across Europe's major leagues this weekend.

NB Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least an hour of the match unless otherwise stated. The sample is based on a team's home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.

Tenerife v Sevilla

Julien Escude

Sevilla travel to Tenerife without their French international defender Julien Escude who has had an operation on the broken nose he incurred when a teammate elbowed him in the face during the World Cup play-off against Ireland last week.

Since the start of last season, Escude has played 29 of Sevilla's 48 matches, with a disappointing return of 14 wins and 10 defeats. However, in the 19 games he has missed, Sevilla have won 14 and lost only twice - their points per game improving by 46% from 1.62 to 2.37. They've both scored more (1.84 per game compared to 1.31) and conceded fewer (0.68 per game compared to 1.14) goals without Escude.

This becomes even stronger when looking purely at away games: Sevilla losing half the 12 matches that Escude has played (W3-D3-L6) compared to being unbeaten with 10 victories in the 12 he has missed, with their average goals conceded falling from 1.42 to just 0.42 per game in the Frenchman's absence along with the number of clean sheets increasing from five to eight.

Sevilla's record without Escude is very strong and with Tenerife sitting in the bottom-half following their promotion, Sevilla should rack up another win at [1.80] although the clean sheet at [2.56] also looks good value for the Andalusian team.

Round-up

Sampdoria v Chievo

Marius Stankevičius is suspended for Sampdoria and the Lithuanian Footballer of the Year has been a big success since joining the Genoa-based team last season. Stanky has played 26 of Samp's 50 matches with a respectable record of 11 wins and six defeats for an average points per game of 1.62. Without him, they've lost 11 of 24 matches and won only six, resulting in a ppg drop of 36% to 1.04. The midfielder's influence has been felt both in attack and defence as average goals scored have fallen by 39% from 1.65 per game to 1.00 and goals conceded have risen by 12% from 1.27 per game to 1.42.

Sampdoria have won only one of their last six matches and without one of their key players Chievo should fancy their chances of taking something from this match. Sampdoria are available to lay at [1.83].

Nice v Toulouse

Toulouse are without two first-choice midfielders as Daniel Braaten and Etienne Capoue are both unavailable. Braaten is a Norwegian international winger while Capoue is the French U21 captain. Braaten has played 33 of 50 matches for Toulouse since the start of last season while Capoue has featured in 41. With Braaten, Toulouse have won 16 and lost only five matches to average 1.82 points per game, while without him they've won and lost five matches with seven draws - a ppg fall of 29% to 1.29. The most striking difference for Toulouse has been their lack of goals without Braaten finding the net just 15 times in the 17 matches. The absence of Capoue has also seen Toulouse's win ratio fall as they have won three and drawn five of the nine matches he's missed.

Without Braaten and Capoue Toulouse are significantly weakened and while Nice are a tempting price at [2.08] Toulouse don't lose that often and Nice on the Asian Handicap -0.25 goals at [2.08] looks a safer bet.

Bordeaux v Valenciennes

Valenciennes must travel to league leaders and current Ligue 1 champions without their injured captain Rafael Schmitz. The Brazilian defender has missed 17 of 50 matches since the start of last season, during which Valenciennes have lost nine times and earned only 18 points in contrast to losing just 29% of the 33 matches he's played - averaging 1.39 points per game. Without Schmitz, they've conceded 37% more goals at 1.41 per game compared to just 1.01 when he has played.

Bordeaux have a perfect record at home this season and should be able to exploit a Valenciennes defence missing their captain and record a ninth W/W in their last 11 home games at [2.26].