Bettorlogic's Injuries And Suspensions Column: Boudebouz absence is bad for Sochaux

European Leagues / Bettorlogic / 16 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

Sochaux's record without Rayn Boudebouz (right) is poor, specially against the top sides. Siding with this weekend's opponents Lyon to be leading at half-time and winning at full-time is the way forward.

"Indeed, their record against top-six teams without Boudebouz is terrible, having picked up just one point in seven matches and losing both away games by the L/L half-time/full-time double."

Key players will be missing from teams all around Europe through injury or suspension this weekend. Bettorlogic tell us how we can benefit from knowing what happens when they're absent.

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Bettorlogic have compiled a report using our player analysis tool Player PRO highlighting the most important players that are likely to be missing across Europe's major leagues this weekend.

NB Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least an hour of the match unless otherwise stated. The sample is based on a team's home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.

Lyon v Sochaux

Ryad Boudebouz

Sochaux make the difficult trip to Lyon without their 19 year old midfielder Ryad Boudebouz who is suspended after collecting too many yellow cards. Boudebouz has proved one of Sochaux's best attackers since breaking into the team at the start of last season and in the 14 matches he's played since then, Sochaux have averaged 25% more goals per game (1.21) than in the 32 he's missed (0.97 goals per game).

This has helped them to six wins amongst their 14 matches with the U19 French International an average of 1.43 points per game. This compares very favourably with Sochaux's record without him, winning just seven of 32 - at an average of less than a point per game.

Indeed, their record against top-six teams without Boudebouz is terrible, having picked up just one point in seven matches and losing both away games by the L/L half-time/full-time double. In fact, they've suffered L/L double results in eight of the 15 away matches he's missed against all teams.

Boudebouz's absence will deprive Sochaux of one of their most effective attacking outlets and they look likely to struggle against Lyon as a result. Lyon can currently be backed at [1.98] to record a W/W double and we think this is good value.

Round-up

Catania v Cagliari

Ezequiel Carboni has had several injury problems since moving from Red Bull Salzburg to Catania and is out again for this game. When he has been fit, he's established himself as a first choice option in Walter Zenga's midfield and in the 23 matches he's played since the start of last season, 11 have had three or more goals - compared with only six of the 22 he's missed. Without their Argentinean midfielder, Catania are likely to keep the game tighter and -2.5 goals looks good value at [1.75].

Lorient v Nice

Nice are without the suspended Drissa Diakite for their trip to Lorient. The Malian international is a key member of Nice's midfield and without him they've really struggled since the start of last season. In the 36 matches that he's played they've won 14 and lost 12 while in the 10 that he's missed Nice's record is a dismal W1-D3-L6 - a fall in points per game of 84% from 1.44 to 0.60.

Their problems have been both in attack, where they've scored 39% fewer goals per game - 1.14 with him compared to 0.70 without - and in defence, where they've conceded 129% more goals per game - 0.70 with him compared to 1.60 without.

Lorient can take advantage of Diakite's absence and continue their good start to the season with another three points. They can currently be backed at [1.98].

Borussia Dortmund v Bochum

Tamas Hajnal is injured for Dortmund as they entertain Bochum. The Hungarian midfielder has missed just seven of 42 games for Dortmund since the start of last season but when he has been absent, Dortmund have generally seen the goals fly in against them, conceding 19 times. This compares with just 31 in the 35 games he's played. As a result, five of the seven games he's missed have featured at least three goals - compared with just 37% of those he's played. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at [1.90].