Bettorlogic's Injuries And Suspensions Column

European Leagues / Bettorlogic / 22 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

The match between Francesco Totti's Roma and Juventus looks to be a low-scoring affair, specially with Juve's Martin Caceres out inured

"Roma have recently tightened up their defence with a series of clean sheets and this looks likely to be a tight match with under 2.5 goals at [2.02] worth some interest."

With players away at the African Cup Of Nations and others out injured and suspended, Bettorlogic look at how their absences can affect the outcome of their matches....

Hoffenheim v Leverkusen

Demba Ba

Hoffenheim are without a win in five games and their troubles have been compounded by the loss of Senegalese striker Demba Ba, after he sustained a thigh injury in their 2-0 loss at Bayern Munich last weekend.

Since the start of last season Ba has been an integral part of the Hoffenheim team, as he's played 42 of the last 52 games and last term missed just one game. The big striker's impact appears significant, as Hoffe average 1.90 goals per game with him compared to just one goal per game without, and up against the undefeated league leaders that looks likely to continue.

As a result of their lack of goals, Hoffenheim's results have dropped off without Ba, their PPG falling from 1.62 down to just 1.20. More significant has been the drop in the number of matches with over 2.5 goals when Ba hasn't been playing, down from 62% with him - including six of nine games this season - to 40% without, including just three of nine this term.

Hoffenheim's run of poor form looks set to continue against high-flying Leverkusen and while the away team looks worth siding with on the Asian handicap -0.25 at about [2.1] the under 2.5 goals market looks slightly better value at [2.14].

Round-up

Livorno v Napoli

Promoted Livorno travel to Napoli without two of their key defenders, with Leonardo Miglionico and Dario Knezevic both struggling with injuries. Each has played and missed 10 games for Livorno this season, with Miglionico averaging 1.30 points per game in the 10 games he's played and Knezevic 1.50 PPG. This is compared to Livorno's average of 0.80 PPG without Miglionico and 0.60 without Knezevic respectively. There's been a 70% increase in Livorno's goals conceded when each hasn't played - up from 1.0 goal per game conceded to 1.70.

Furthermore, in the six games they have played together, Livorno have conceded just 0.83 goals per game compared to 1.57 in the 14 where at least one has been absent. As a result they're yet to have a game with three or more goals when both have been playing, whilst without this defensive axis in place, half of Livorno's 14 games have had over 2.5 goals and that looks to be where the value lies here at [2.34].

Sevilla v Almeria

Abdoulay Konko is injured for Sevilla ahead of their match with Almeria this weekend. The French winger has become an important player for Sevilla since moving from Genoa at the start of last season and in the 23 matches he's played they've averaged two points per game, while in the 33 he's missed their PPG is 18% lower at 1.64. This difference is even more pronounced at home, with Sevilla's PPG at 2.09 from 11 matches with Konko, compared to 1.59 from the 17 he's missed. This drop is largely down to their reduced ability to find the net without Konko - their average goals scored at home down from 2.09 per game with the former Genoa man, to just 1.24 per game without him.

With Konko injured, and Didier Zokora still away at the African Cup of Nations, Almeria should be able to take advantage of Sevilla's terrible run of form and Sevilla look a definite lay at [1.51].

Juventus v Roma

Juventus are struggling with injuries and on a run of poor results, while Roma are in their best form for some time. The Old Lady have recently added on-loan full-back Martin Caceres to their lengthy injury list. They've struggled when he's been out of the team this season, winning only five of 12 matches and losing four times. These matches have also tended to produce fewer goals than the eight games the Barcelona owned player has started, with 63% of the matches he's played having over 2.5 goals compared with just 5 of the 12 he's missed.

Roma have recently tightened up their defence with a series of clean sheets and this looks likely to be a tight match with under 2.5 goals at [2.02] worth some interest.