Bettorlogic's Injuries And Suspensions Column

European Leagues / Bettorlogic / 30 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

Santi Cazorla is a Spanish international but surprisingly, the stats suggest Villarreal are better of without him in the team.

"However, the opposite may well be the case as Villarreal’s results have dramatically improved when the winger has been absent."

Every week Bettorlogic look at key absentees from across the major European leagues and assess what impact their absences will have for us bettors...

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Bettorlogic have compiled a report using our player analysis tool Player PRO highlighting the most important players that are likely to be missing across Europe's major leagues this weekend.

NB Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least an hour of the match unless otherwise stated. The sample is based on a team's home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.

Villarreal v Tenerife

Santi Cazorla

Villarreal have had a terrible start to the season and currently lie in the relegation zone, five places and three points below Tenerife. The Yellow Submarine's task looks to have been made harder by the back injury incurred by Spanish international Santi Cazorla.

However, the opposite may well be the case as Villarreal's results have dramatically improved when the winger has been absent. Since the start of last season, Cazorla has played 32 and missed 14 matches - Villarreal returning a less than impressive won 10, drawn 11, lost 11 record with him (1.28 PPG), whilst winning nine of those he's missed, with just two defeats (2.14 PPG) - a 67% improvement. These results are even more impressive when the quality of the opposition is considered, Villarreal beating Real Madrid and Valencia, and drawing with Barcelona at the end of last season, all without Cazorla.

Villarreal's average goals scored have been higher without the Spaniard (1.57 per game compared to 1.44) while their goals conceded have been lower (1.14 per game compared to 1.53). With Tenerife having lost all four of their away matches this season and Cazorla not playing, Villarreal look good value to pick up their second win of the season [1.84].

Round-up

Grenoble v Lille

Grenoble have lost all 10 matches they've played this season and will be without their Serbian defender Millvoje Vitakic as they welcome his former club Lille this weekend. Vitakic has played in 30 of Grenoble's 48 home matches since the start of last season and with him they've lost just 40% of their matches while winning 30%. However, without Vitakic they've slipped to 12 defeats and won just once, including 11 defeats in their last 14 games. Their average goals conceded has risen by 35% in his absence from 1.07 to 1.44. Grenoble's hopes of picking up their first points of the season this weekend don't look good and the Lille win looks good value at [1.88].

Fiorentina v Catania

The Viola might have been humbled in their last two matches against Napoli and Genoa but the chances of a third straight defeat look very slim against a Catania side who will be missing influential Uruguayan striker Jorge Martinez. The forward has missed 25 of Catania's 48 matches since the start of last season and Catania's loss rate in those games has increased from 43% to 56%. More specifically, they've lost eight of 13 (61%) matches against top-half teams without Martinez, with five of the defeats by way of the draw/loss double. Fiorentina should get back to winning ways on Sunday and we think draw/Fiorentina represents the best value [4.5].

Siena v Lazio

Ousmane Dabo is suspended for Lazio following a straight red card last weekend at Bari. The former Manchester City player has played 15 of Lazio's 48 matches since the start of last season with mixed results, the Eagles scoring 33% more goals when he has played (1.33 scored per game compared to 1.00), but conceding 26% more (1.60 conceded per game compared to 1.27). As a result, the number of matches with fewer than three goals has increased from 47% to 70% when Dabo is missing and with Lazio in freefall we think -2.5 goals [1.70] looks best value.