Betting Strategy: Embrace your own mad axe-man for successful long-term punting

European Leagues / Dave Farrar / 22 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

Dave Farrar has found a new betting guru and urges you to adopt his tactics to get ahead in gambling.

I have to confess that, until I saw the serialization of his book in the Racing Post last week, the name Patrick Veitch meant very little to me, and having spent the weekend reading 'Enemy Number One', I suspect that's exactly how he'd like it. To say that "this book will change your life" is an unbearable cliché, but for anyone who likes to gamble even semi seriously, I promise you that you ought to go out and buy it right now, and take the day off work tomorrow to read it.

The reason that Veitch is worth listening to, is that he's a success, and that he knows exactly why: this is a man who came out of a crisis in his personal life and, initially driven by anger, ended up making ten million pounds in four years through gambling on horse races.

No matter whether you're a high or low stakes punter, his lessons stand up to close scrutiny. His description of what it takes to be a successful gambler is that you should be "part brain surgeon, part mad axe-man", and I don't think that I've ever heard a better description of the two separate parts of this frustrating game that we all play. You have to be as statistically prepared as you possibly can be to go into battle, but you also have to have enough about you to risk your money, albeit with the odds in your favour.

I could quote endlessly from 'Enemy Number One', and I'll be re-reading it later this week, but I'll let you look at it yourselves and make up your own minds. I'll concentrate on building up the brain surgeon part of my punting, given that I think I have the mad axe-man bit pretty well worked out.

Those of you who listen regularly to the European Football Show on betting.betfair.com and iTunes will know that every member of the team, as well as the majority of our listeners, have backed Bordeaux at [6.0] to win the French League. They are currently trading at [3.55] and, with close scrutiny, I still think that they represent good value. The reason for the bet in the first place was that Lyon looked like they were fading (they have done), Marseille looked unconvincing (they still do), and that Bordeaux had by far and away the best run-in (and surprisingly enough, that hasn't changed).

Bordeaux's toughest fixture always looked to be the home game against Lyon, and now they have won that, I really don't see the two point deficit to Marseille as a problem. They also have the look of a team that is starting to hit form, and is playing with belief: against Lyon, they deserved to win by more than a single goal.

Given that Marseille are certain to drop points over their closing games, it's only Rennes, Sochaux, Valenciennes, Le Mans, Monaco and Caen that stand between Laurent Blanc's team and the title. Rennes this weekend will be the hardest game, but Bordeaux can even draw or lose that and win the League. The brain surgeon part of me is satisfied that the bet stands up to close scrutiny, and now the mad axe-man will need to kick in and take any price above [3.0] which is on offer.

The message from Veitch is to limit your bets, bide your time, and then punt to higher stakes and with confidence when you do so. One of my most successful ever punting nights came when Floyd Mayweather beat Ricky Hatton two years ago. I couldn't believe that Mayweather was [5.5] to win inside the distance, and [1.7] to win the fight. And yet I think that Hatton is exceptional value to beat Manny Pacqiuao next Saturday: Hatton is often too short a price because British punters steam into him, but I'm amazed to find him trading at [3.2] to beat Pacqiuao, a man who is a fine fighter, but who I'm still convinced is fighting at too big a weight and who beat a shell of a fighter in Oscar De La Hoya last time out.

If you disregard that fight, as I think you can, then it would be an even money match, and that rates Hatton as huge value at [3.2], and at [4.7] to win inside the distance. The brain surgeon tells me that the price will shorten come fight night, and so the mad axe-man will be punting big now, and looking to trade some of the stake as the fight gets closer.

The more and more we bet, the more that we should be determined to be disciplined, assiduous in our research and sensibly brave, all at the same time: with the publication of 'Enemy Number One', we've all found our role model. I'm hoping that the dark blue of Bordeaux, and the sky blue of Ricky Hatton, make this a betting fortnight to remember.