Betterlogic's European Injuries and Suspensions Column

European Leagues / Bettorlogic / 23 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

Roma will be expected to perform well on Sunday after their draw in South-West London on Thursday night despite missing their record goalscorer, Francesco Totti. Betterlogic look at Roma's performances with and without Totti as well as looking at other key absences in Italy, France and Germany.

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Bettorlogic have compiled a report using our player analysis tool Player PRO highlighting the most important players that are likely to be missing across Europe's major leagues this weekend.

NB Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least an hour of the match unless otherwise stated. The sample is based on a team's home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.

Roma v Livorno

Francesco Totti

Roma have suffered a poor start to the season and currently sit in the bottom half after eight rounds of matches. Their struggles are further compounded this weekend by the absence of star player Francesco Totti who is injured. Ordinarily a game at the Stadio Olimpico against newly promoted and bottom-placed team Livorno would offer The Wolves some respite and a comfortable three points. However, such is their reliance on Totti that nothing can be taken for granted here.

Totti has struggled with injuries since the start of last season which have restricted him to making 28 appearances in Roma's 46 matches. With their captain available, Roma have turned in some excellent results, winning 57% of matches and averaging 1.89 points per game. Without their talisman however, Roma's have been dire - winning just five times and across the 18 matches, averaging 1.17 points per game - a drop of 38%.

One of the notable things about Totti's absence has been their poor second-half results, losing eight of 18 second periods (W6-D4-L8) compared to winning eight of the opening halves (W8-D5-L5).

The Roma legend and club record goalscorer has personally contributed 18 goals to the cause - double the next best tally -and as a result, Roma's average goals-scored falls from 1.82 per game to 1.56 when he doesn't play.

Roma look very short at [1.39] and while laying them looks to offer good value the Asian handicap looks an excellent price for more cautious punters with Livorno +1.25 goals odds-against at [2.05]. For bettors who like a long shot the half-time/full-time market looks tempting with Roma's propensity to start well and finish badly without Totti suggesting the Roma/Draw price of [22.0] is too long.

Round-up

Palermo v Udinese

Palermo are missing their best defender Simon Kjaer after the Danish international was sent off last weekend. Since the start of last season the 20 year-old centre-back has played 29 of Palermo's 46 matches with The Eagles losing 47% of the matches he's missed and 31% of those he's started, conceding 17% more goals per game when he's been absent (1.41 compared to 1.21). As a result of their weak defence, without Kjaer 59% of Palermo's matches have gone over the 2.5 goal-line, compared to 45% of those that he's played.

With high-scoring Udinese coming to town, this match should see plenty of goals and the [1.87] for +2.5 goals looks worth supporting - whilst Udinese on the Asian handicap at +0.25 goals [2.06] also looks value.

Nice v Lyon

Nice are without midfielder Emerse Fae as they play host to Liverpool's Champions League conquerors and current Ligue 1 leaders Lyon. The Ivory Coast midfielder has played 35 of Nice's 47 matches since the start of last season after leaving Reading. Averaging 1.34 points per game with him, Nice have won just twice and lost five of 12 matches when he's been absent - including a failure to win any of their last six home matches (W0-D3-L3). Nice's problems have been at both ends without the Ivorian; their goals-scored falling from 1.11 to 0.83 while their goals-conceded have risen from 1.20 to 1.58.

Lyon recovered from their shock defeat against Sochaux last week to win away at Anfield and we think they're good value for another here at [1.72]. Those looking for greater value might be tempted by the Lyon/Lyon double at [2.68] - all three of Nice's home defeats without Fae have come after losing the first half.

Hertha Berlin v Wolfsburg

Grafite has gone back to Brazil for a week's holiday after he failed to match the fireworks of last season that saw him return 28 goals as the Bundesliga's top scorer. Since the start of last season, Grafite has played 31 of Wolfsburg's 43 matches and while their average goals-scored has fallen from 2.48 to 1.75 without him, they've actually picked up more points per game, losing nine of the 31 matches that Grafite has played - compared to just one of 12 that he's missed.

With Hertha sitting rock-bottom having lost eight of their nine matches this season, the absence of Grafite should not unduly affect Wolfsburg and we think they're likely to take all three points [1.82].