Serie A Betting: Juve to put in a Juve-like performance

European Leagues / Dave Farrar / 24 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

Before watching the first midweek programme of Serie A on Betfair Live Video tonight, read Dave Farrar's astute preview of the action in which he predicts that Juve might go crazy and score two.

Atalanta v Cagliari

This might not be the sexiest offering from the first midweek Serie A matchday of the season, but it does provide a bit of value.

Atalanta used to play free flowing football, but Gigi Del Neri has tightened them up this year, and they have, along with Juventus, the best defence in Serie A. Cagliari have the worst backline, having conceded seven goals in their three games so far, and it's hard to see them troubling the home side. In fairness to Cagliari, two of their three games so far have been against Lazio and Juventus, but they sit rock bottom of the table, and will have to improve considerably to get anything at all from a team with serious ambitions this season.

It's always important to check team news when you're backing Atalanta, because the veteran Cristiano Doni is so important to the way that they play, but he is fighting fit and prepared to orchestrate a win that could put Atalanta top of the table. I was really impressed by the reaction of the Atalanta players to their defeat against Catania at the weekend. This was the kind of loss that would have met with a shrug of the shoulders last season, but they were furious with themselves for blowing the chance to maintain the only 100% record left in Serie A. I expect them to bounce back to form against an awful Cagliari side, and, even though they're odds on, they're still too big a price, and they're a confident selection to beat Cagliari and cost their coach Massimiliano Allegri his job.

Back Atalanta to beat Cagliari at [1.79]

Genoa v Roma

Roma managed to put a stop to their terrible start to the season by beating a poor Reggina team at the weekend, but this will be an altogether different test. Genoa are playing with real confidence after beating Milan here two weeks ago, and although they lost at the weekend against in form Palermo, their coach Piero Gasperini was encouraged by the way that they fought right until the end.

Diego Milito's goal at least allowed them to leave Sicily with some respectability. Milito's return is the key to Genoa. They love him here, and he has put real life into the place since he returned from Real Zaragoza. Milito has scored twice already this season, and with Roma's strikeforce gradually coming to terms with life without Mancini and scoring three at the weekend, this could turn into a really lively game. I think that both teams will score, which should always be the starting point with an over 2.5 goals bet.

Roma won here 1-0 last season, and their in form man of the moment Cristian Panucci got the goal in the last minute of that game. He has two in two, and given that he has happy memories of the Marassi, he might just be a bit of value to score again. The main bet, though, is over 2.5 goals.

Back Over 2.5 goals at [2.06]

Juventus v Catania

Juve have been back in Serie A for more than a season now, but you know that they're serious challengers for the title when people start complaining about the way that they play. Jose Mourinho led the charge last week, and comparisons have been made between Claudio Ranieri's side and those of Marcello Lippi and Fabio Capello, which seemed to win 1-0 every week. If it wasn't for Alberto Gilardino's last minute equaliser for Fiorentina on the opening day, Juve would have won all three of their Serie A games by that scoreline. Throw in the victory over Zenit St Petersburg in the Champions League, and 1-0 becomes a big runner in this match. I'm surprised that you can back that scoreline at [7.4].

The logic behind that price is that Catania aren't as good as the other teams that Juve have played this season, but that doesn't mean that Juve will start scoring for fun. Inter needed an own goal to beat Catania, and they come into this match after beating a good Atalanta team by, yes, a scoreline of 1-0. Catania are coached by Walter Zenga who is astute enough to make sure that his team doesn't get a hiding, and Juve will be even more defensive than normal because of the absence of Gigi Buffon.

I can't resist backing the obvious scoreline, and also going under 2.5 goals as an insurance, in case Juve go crazy and score two.

Back Juve to win 1-0 at [7.4] and back under 2.5 goals at [2.02]