UEFA Cup Semi-Final Odds: Poor value Bremen are one to swerve

Europa League / Andrew Atherley / 29 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

Stats man Andrew Atherley has looked at the four semi-finalists and the German outfit look like shaky favourites.

There is a valid argument that this week's Uefa Cup semi-final line-up is the strongest in recent history, with three of the four contenders having come out of the Champions League - the highest representation since the back-door route into the Uefa Cup was introduced nine seasons ago. And there are grounds, too, for saying that Werder Bremen are poor favourites among such a strong quartet of semi-finalists.

Bremen are one of the teams that have come out of the Champions League and are [3.25] favourites to lift the trophy in Istanbul on May 20. Hamburg are [3.7] second favourites, with Ukraine's pair of Champions League dropouts, Shakhtar Donetsk and Dynamo Kiev, both [4.6].

The odds are intriguing because, among that quartet, Bremen have the worst fit for the profile of a Uefa Cup-winning team. Most winners are teams on the up - the best recent example being Porto in 2003 before they graduated to winning the Champions League the following year - and Bremen this season have been a team on the way down. They are 10th in the Bundesliga, having finished in the top three for the past five seasons, and are 15 points behind Hamburg, their semi-final opponents.

Most Uefa Cup winners in the past nine seasons have fitted most or all of a handful of key factors...

* All nine were destined for a top-five finish in their domestic league that year.
* Eight of the nine were performing at least as well domestically as they had the previous season.
* Seven of the nine had a defensive record that ranked in the top three.
* Seven of the nine were from one of the big five European leagues or had come out of the Champions League.

Bremen qualify only on the latter count. They are 15 points short of fifth place in the Bundesliga, are 10th this season compared with last season's second place, and eight Bundesliga teams (including Hamburg) have a better defensive record. On that basis Bremen's odds appear to be based more on past achievements than current form.

Hamburg are better qualified. They are currently fifth (five points clear of sixth) and, while they finished fourth last season, they have already matched last season's points total with five games left and are still in with a title shout, lying only three points behind leaders Wolfsburg. A negative is that they rank only eighth on defence in the Bundesliga.

But don't rule out Martin Jol's men just because they are the only semi-finalist not to have come down the Champions League route - in eight of the past nine seasons at least one Champions League dropout has reached the semis, and only three times out of eight has a Champions League team gone on to lift the trophy.

Two of those three winners were destined to win their domestic league (the other one finished third) and that is a pointer to Dynamo Kiev, who are most certainly a team on the up. Last season they finished second in their domestic league behind Shakhtar but this season they have reversed positions, with Dynamo leading Shakhtar by 12 points with five games left. Shakhtar's defence is slightly better, however, with their league-leading 15 goals conceded just edging Dynamo's 16.

Spice was injected into the semi-finals when the top two Ukrainian teams were drawn against each other, leaving north German rivals Bremen and Hamburg to fight it out for the other berth in the final. An interesting point to note, albeit from a very small sample, is that in two previous Uefa Cup semis featuring teams from the same country, the higher-placed team has won both ties - a pointer to Hamburg and Dynamo Kiev.

Another possible advantage for Hamburg is that they are away in the first leg of the semi - as seven of the last nine Uefa Cup winners have been. Shakhtar are away first in the all-Ukrainian battle, though it has to be noted that seven of the nine losing finalists were at home first in the semi and still made it through, so any apparent home/away advantage in the semis could just be a statistical quirk rather than a meaningful trend.

One well-established trend is that the semi-finals tend to be low-scoring - 13 out of 18 in the past nine seasons have had under 2.5 goals, with 10 under 1.5 goals (at least one semi has had under 1.5 goals in eight of the nine seasons).

Overall, the Uefa Cup revolves around Bremen. If they are poor favourites, as the stats indicate, then there must be value elsewhere, though the closeness of the remaining contenders does not make picking a winner easy. The best qualifiers from a stats viewpoint are Hamburg and Dynamo Kiev and backing those two teams at this stage raises the possibility of getting both finalists, and being in a position to trade even if only one made it through.

Given their upward curve, Dynamo at [4.6] look best value of the pair, while the team to lay, based on the stats, is Bremen at [3.35].