UEFA Cup Final Betting: Expect Goals ... Expect Profits

Europa League / Matthew Walton / 19 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

Matthew Walton has few tips which could help you see off the UEFA Cup in the best possible way - by making some money on it...

For some Shakhtar Donetsk against Werder Bremen may not be the most glamorous game with which to say farewell to the UEFA Cup but - some could also say - 'twas ever thus as far as Europe's second biggest and second oldest cup competition is concerned.

Even allowing for a list of past winners which includes such notable names as Bayern Munich, Liverpool, Ajax, Juventus and Real Madrid the tournament has always been one which, along with the equally defunct Cup Winners Cup, has given some of Europe's lesser lights the chance to get their hands on some silverware - IFK Gothenburg, Eintracht Frankfurt, Zenit St. Petersburg, Napoli ... even Ipswich Town.

But if our study of this business has taught us anything, it's that betting opportunities can be found in any match, at any level, involving any teams. All you need to do is apply the right research to the right markets ... and then let Betfair do the rest.

So before we herald the arrival of UEFA's next convoluted, continental, cup competition (the Europa League) for the 2009/10 season, let's make sure we see off the current incarnation in the best way possible - by making some money on it!

Hence, we made a study of the most recent finals in this competition, those we've seen over the last 10 years, when the inclusion of the Champions League group stage losers (starting back in 1999/2000) first began and their influence on the tournament started to take effect. And, of course, both Shakhtar and Bremen entered the competition this year after their early elimination from UEFA's premier knock-out event.

Briefly, on the match odds. In the last nine finals we've seen four go to extra time (44%), which is quite a high proportion. Strictly, on the figures, that corresponds to odds of just [2.25] but you'll see the 90 minute draw market currently trading as high as [3.40]. That, in itself, is an angle worth noting. More so as the outright market is finding it hard to split these two sides in terms of favouritism to win the match inside the regulation time, with Bremen [2.80] just edging Shakhtar [2.82] in the early exchanges.

Preference for the draw also leads to a study of the 'method of victory' market. Over the years we've seen Galatasaray defeat Arsenal on penalties in 2000, Liverpool won the trophy in 2001 by beating Alaves on the golden goal rule, Porto won it in extra-time against Celtic in 2003 and Sevilla's 2007 victory over Espanyol was another final settled by penalties.

As such, with the application of a bit of lateral thinking, whether you fancy Shakhtar or Bremen to lift the trophy they can only win by one of three methods - in 90 minutes, after extra-time or on penalties.

Therefore, should you find the 90 minute prices unappealing, the choice of Shakhtar in extra-time [13.0] or on penalties [12.5] - and likewise Bremen who trade at [12.5] and [11.0] respectively - could be a way of boosting your returns.

Even a split stakes bet on either is going to pay around the [5.5] mark which, again, makes it a line of attack which could significantly increase your profits on the match.

In terms of the various markets which cover goalscoring, it's worth remembering that the first final back in 2000 has been the only one which has failed to produce a goal. The following eight matches have collectively generated 33 goals, a very healthy average in excess of four goals per game.

Naturally, Liverpool's 4-4 draw with Alaves in 2001 inflates these figures somewhat but the individual scorelines of 4-4, 3-2, 2-2, 2-0, 3-1, 4-0, 2-2 and 2-0 clearly demonstrate the freescoring characteristic of this final.

As you'll see with regards to the over/under market, we've had an over 1.5 goals make-up in each of the last eight years - currently trading at [1.35] - and the over 2.5 goals - available at [2.02] - has paid out in six of the last nine finals. On that basis, both options hint at more than a bit of value. Furthermore, when you consider that Bremen and Shakhtar's 16 matches in the competition to date have resulted in a combined total of 44 goals (2.75 goals per game), the profile of both these sides suggest that goals could very well be the order of the day.

As a result if looking for a correct score bet the options, at least in terms of the available data, wouldn't encourage a play on the 0-0 scoreline or even 1-0 either way. The favoured draw possibility would be 2-2 at [17.0], which has occurred twice in 2003 and 2007, or perhaps 2-1 either way which would pay around [11.5] whichever way you prefer to go.

With a view to in-running plays, one interesting statistic is that the side who has scored first has gone on to win the final seven out of the last eight years. Only Sporting Lisbon failed to turn an initial lead into a win when they were defeated 3-1 by CSKA Moscow in 2005.

Overall, the general feeling is that the match is a much less pressured affair than the Champions League decider. Obviously sides who make it through to the final want to win but the history of this match indicates that they do seem prepared to go out and win the trophy, rather than sitting back and merely hoping it falls into their hands.

With this in mind, there should be numerous opportunities for in-running trades as well as the possibility of several solid bets before the match, given that the data is so pointed in suggesting that there will be goals in Turkey on Wednesday night.

So, despite this being the end of the UEFA Cup, there's no reason why it can't be a profitable conclusion. And if these two teams approach this game in the same manner as their predecessors then we should expect quite a send-off for this tournament and a tough act for the Europa League to follow.