UEFA Cup Betting: Back the hosts to make Istanbul

Europa League / Ben Lyttleton / 06 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

Thursday night's all-Ukrainian semi-final is perfectly poised but with a partisan crowd behind them, Ben Lyttleton believes that Mircea Lucescu's men can prevail in spite of suspensions. Meanwhile, can Weder Bremen recover against Hamburg? Best Bet: Shakhtar to win 2-0 @ [11.5].

The impact of Mircea Lucescu's surprise decision to extend his contract at Shakhtar Donetsk was clear to see in last week's Uefa Cup first-leg tie against Dynamo Kiev. Lucescu had seen his side outplayed in the first half but only one goal down, after Artem Milevskiy's free-kick was deflected into his own net by Dmitry Chygrynsky. After half-time, he rang the changes, bringing in Olexandr Gladkiy and Willian, both of whom played a major part in setting up the deserved equaliser for Fernandinho.

The only problem Lucescu faces before Thursday's home leg is that Fernandinho and Olexandr Kucher are suspended after picking up yellow cards last week. The loss of Fernandinho, in particular, is a blow so Willian is expected to start alongside Luiz Adriano up front.

Dynamo have problems of their own: aside from concerns about the future of striker Ismael Bangoura, wanted by Everton, and coach Yuri Semin, linked with a return to Russia at Lokomotiv Moscow, they seemed overly-reliant on Milevskiy and when he was kept quiet in the second period, their threat was greatly reduced.

But the key factor in the game could be Shakhtar's home advantage: Lucescu¹s side have won their last 12 matches at the Olympiyskiy Stadium, a run that includes a 1-0 win over Dynamo (thanks to a Willian match-winner) and European wins over FC Basel (5-0), Spurs (2-0), CSKA Moscow (2-0) and Marseille (2-0).

With Dynamo needing to score to have any chance of progressing, there will be gaps for the hosts to exploit, which is why Shakhtar's price of [1.59] to become the first Ukrainian side to reach a European final is worth a look. Considering that the last goal Shakhtar conceded at home was on November 1, the correct score prices of Shakhtar to win 1-0, [7.4], and 2-0, [11.5] also represent value.

Hamburg have a big advantage in the other semi-final, although they could have increased their 1-0 lead in the away leg had Ivica Olic not had two efforts well-saved by Werder Bremen's in-form goalkeeper Tim Wiese.

At the other hand, Hugo Almeida twice threatened Frank Rost's goal while Claudio Pizarro saw a late chance go wide. But it was a disappointing effort from Bremen, whose disappointing league campaign continued with a 1-0 loss at Cologne last weekend. Coach Thomas Schaaf has admitted his players are tired, but will they have enough in the tank for one final onslaught with a trip to Istanbul the prize?

On current form, Hamburg have the momentum and the fact that they are still competing for the Bundesliga title - at the moment they are five points behind leaders Wolfsburg and a ([18.5]) price - has helped them find and keep to a rhythm in their play. Bremen, on the other hand, are stuck in mid-table and struggled to raise their level in the first leg.

Hamburg, though, are still missing Mladen Petric through injury and are another striker short after Jose Paolo Guerrero picked up a second yellow card. But as a team, they are playing on a different plane to Bremen at the moment, and although Diego is always capable of conjuring a goal out of nothing, I expect the hosts to add to their advantage in what will be an open game.

Hamburg are short at [1.4] to reach the final, but the Hamburg/Hamburg price in the Half-Time/Full-Time market is [4.8] and with nothing left to play for, expect Bremen to go for broke, so over 3.5 goals is [3.05].