UEFA Cup Betting: AaB v Manchester City

Europa League / Alsy / 18 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

Unlike other English clubs, Manchester City have shown the UEFA Cup the respect it deserves and now they are about to reap the rewards, say Alister Morgan. Best Bests: The Draw @ [4.3]

As Manchester City take a 2-0 lead into the second-leg against Aalborg it's worth remembering that they are Fair Play entrants in the UEFA Cup. How fitting that the solitary English team in the competition should be carried thus far by exemplary sporting manners. Jettisoning Joey Barton clearly brings its own rewards so perhaps Newcastle should follow suit in the hope of European football... Actually, there's a more plausible issue regarding Fair Play that better explains City's impressive European run - they have always fielded their strongest team.

As the quarter-finals draw closer the the Blues seem to be peaking at the right time. The Premier League table is as tight as ever but, sitting in tenth place, City should avoid the unholy relegation scramble. They need to improve their away form but despite the failure to secure Kaka, Mark Hughes will be chuffed with his January shopping spree. Everyone else was hunting for bargains but, while Craig Bellamy, Nigel de Jong and Wayne Bridge were anything but, they have all played a significant part in City's recent revival.

A few weeks ago Aston Villa and Tottenham both fielded weakened teams in the UEFA Cup with domestic concerns taking precedence. I've rarely seen such complaceny in modern football (especially from two teams with no recent success in Europe) and following Spurs' 2-1 victory over Villa it was laughable to hear Redknapp and O'Neill discuss involvement in next year's UEFA Cup after losing the Carling Cup and Premier League fourth place respectively.

Manchester City have more full internationals than Spurs and Villa but, despite a grave league position, they showed the UEFA Cup the respect it deserved. Now they look close to reaping the rewards.

City's 2-0 win in the first-leg, especially the clean-sheet, was impressive. AaB are a dangerous side but while they enjoyed periods of possession they didn't create enough problems for Shay Given over ninety minutes.

AaB are [3.05] to win the match, Manchester City can be backed at [2.54] with The Draw is [3.45]. The Draw option looks the best bet to me with City well equipped to defend for long periods and score on the break. Their 1-0 defeat to Chelsea on Saturday would have provided them with ample defending practice but they will not be facing the attacking threat of Drogba, Anelka and Lampard on Thursday night. Vincent Kompany faces a late fitness test but with Nedum Onuoha maintaining his outstanding form at centre-half, Mark Hughes has excellent options at the back.

I think AaB will score (they put three past Deportivo La Coruna in the previous round) but City have some formidable attacking options of their own. Stephen Ireland is always a threat from midfield while both Robinho and Bellamy are available after injuries. With Felipe Caicedo in good form Bellamy is likely to start on the bench and the muscular Ecuadorian, following a goal in the first-leg, will fancy his chances again.

I don't expect too many goals as City do not need to chase the game - I'd look to back Under 2.5 Goals at [2.02] and I definitely fancy 1-1 in the Correct Score market at [7.2]. AaB fans looking to back their team should avoid the tempting To Qualify odds at [11.0] but there is some value in the Clean Sheet market where you can back the Danes to keep a clean sheet at [4.1].

Finally you can back Manchester City to win the Uefa Cup at [5.9] which seems a little generous to me. They will not fear anyone left in this Cup and their odds will quickly narrow if they progress on Thursday night in the Energi Nord Arena.