Football Betting: Who's up for the UEFA Cup?

Europa League / Matthew Walton / 25 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

Clubs, players and supporters may have given up on the UEFA Cup but, with its disregard for the formbook, it might well pay backers to keep the faith, says Matthew Walton.

There was a time when the format of Europe's premier football competitions was clear and straightforward. Easily understood by one and all.

There was the European Cup for the winners of each national top division, the UEFA Cup for the 'also rans' and the Cup Winners Cup for the winners of the respective national knock-out competitions.

However, through the 'best efforts' of several interested parties - the media, the sponsors, the G-14 group of all-powerful clubs, UEFA themselves - all this was to change.

The Cup Winners Cup ended in 1999 after Lazio beat Mallorca 2-1 at Villa Park and the already league-based Champions League became even more league-based with the introduction of yet another round of mini-groups. And what of the UEFA Cup?

Well, as a consequence, this once prestigious competition became something of a catch-all - providing a home for the now displaced national cup winners, as well as a haven for those sides not good enough to make it all that far in the Champions League and it's original purpose of gamefully employing those 'near misses' from Europe's premier divisions.

The result being the tournament has tended to fall between not two but three stools, losing its place amongst the affections of clubs, their players and supporters. (UEFA plan to address this decline in fortunes with a re-branding from next season ... the Europa League).

However, whilst others may have given up on the UEFA Cup, it might well pay us backers to give the competition a second look. Experience tells us to never turn our backs on a money making opportunity!

And straight away on studying the competition what immediately strikes you is the general disregard for the traditional football formbook. This makes for a high frequency of upsets which, in turn, creates the potential for some big-priced winners ... in short, whilst many may have given up on the UEFA Cup, we Betfair backers certainly shouldn't discount its profit potential.

Simply put, this tournament is chock-full of surprises. The roll of honour for recent years includes Zenit St. Petersburg (2008), Seville (2007 & 2006), CSKA Moscow (2005), Valencia (2004), Porto (2003), Feyenoord (2002), Liverpool (2001) and Galatasaray (2000).

Something of a mixed bag, it's fair to say, and even when the so-called 'big named' clubs were successful there's more to it than meets the eye.

For example, Valencia won in 2004 but the presence of teams like Barcelona, Inter Milan, Roma and Liverpool meant that the Spanish club were by no means the market leaders in that year. Similarly, Porto in 2003 had Liverpool, Lyon, Lazio and Stuttgart for company at the top of the betting market.

Liverpool themselves in 2001 vied for favouritism with the likes of Inter Milan, Roma and Barcelona.

Then look at Zenit, Seville (especially in 2005), CSKA, Feyenoord and Galatasaray. Do any of these sides have a pedigree of European success?

And if you think the winners are a motley crew, take a look at the most recent runners-up in the competition. Middlesbrough, Deportivo Alves, Marseille, Celtic & Rangers, Sporting Lisbon and Espanyol.

Several familiar names in that bunch but don't be fooled, prices about all of them would have been [34.0], [41.00] and [51.00] plus.

The reasons behind these results don't particularly concern us here (although, for sure, the perception of this cup being a very, very poor relation of the Champions League must have some effect). What is of interest is how to make best use of these results i.e. to study the current markets in order to find some good value bets.

The first point to make is that true to this competition's bizarre format we don't even know who the final 32 might be, let alone could be, once the current group phase is completed. That's because of the eight sides from the Champions League group phase who parachute into this event - having been knocked out of that 'more prestigious' competition.

But whoever that might be, it's key to remember that only CSKA Moscow, Feyenoord and Galatasaray have won the UEFA Cup having joined at this advanced stage. That's only one of the last six winners (but there have been two runners-up, Rangers in 2008 and Marseille in 2004).

In this respect, if you're looking at the market right now, there's a very strong chance the eventual winner is already on the coupon. Other sides may get added to the mix, and no doubt increase the odds, but in terms of who is actually going to win come May, it tends to be clubs who have been in it from the start. And this makes sense ... surely they're more focused on the job than suffering from the let-down having just blown their big chance in the Champions League.

As such, old favourites Seville [12.0], CSKA Moscow [32.0] and Galatasaray [55.0] could very well come into consideration. Then you have the home guard of Aston Villa, Spurs and Manchester City but it's debatable whether there will ever be much value about them given overly-patriotic support.

There's always the chance of a team sneaking up on the rails - Hamburg [40.0] - and pulling off another surprise result. Likewise, if AC Milan [5.3] get the bit between their teeth what side in Europe can compete?

You may prefer to wait until the final 32 is confirmed, which could well be a sensible policy, but what is also borne out of common sense is the fact this competition regularly provides surprise results. If you blindly follow the market leaders you will get your fingers burnt.

The key to any bet is knowing your selection is 'off for their lives' and has their eyes on the prize. This tournament, more than most, brings with it questionable motivation. You may well get bigger prices about your side once the Champions League failures drop in but don't be seduced by these other big names, don't switch horses mid-race.

The winner of this year's competition is already staring at you from the Betfair market.