Europa League Betting: Revamped format, same hard working to find the winner

Europa League / Matthew Walton / 19 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Michel Platini will be remembered for being the man in charge when the UEFA Cup became the Europa League

"For now we’d point out that our studies of the last 10 years of UEFA Cup action show that of the last four teams in each year’s tournament (two losing semi-finalists, the runner-up and winner), making a sample group of 40 in all, the most came from Spain (8), next came Germany (7), then Italy and England (5) and Russia (4). That’s 73% from just five countries. "

"Magical" Matthew Walton explains the reasoning behind the creation of the Europa League format, who has reached the business end of the tournament in the past and what the stats tell us about who could go far this time round.

Refering to the newly introduced Europa Cup 2009-10 on their website, UEFA comment that 'work continues to enhance the image and profile of European club football's second club competition'.

This seems to ignore the fact that it was UEFA themselves, by hyping the Champions League to its current stratospheric level, who created this image problem in the first place.

The shadow that 'European club football's first club competition' casts over the rest of the continent makes it very difficult for any other soccer tournament, domestic or pan-European, to survive let alone prosper. And so the Europa League, a modified version of the UEFA Cup, which was itself re-modelled as recently as 2004-05, starts this season needing to fill a big gap - and like Antonio Valencia replacing Ronaldo ... the jury is still out.

At least this season's new format has a more sensible look than its predecessor. The convoluted five team group stage - including those seemingly random home and away fixtures - has been scrapped. Instead the new competition has a clearer structure, even if many still remain decidely unclear as to why teams who fail to make the grade in the Champions League should merit a place in this 'improved' tournament.

And this last point is key to the debate. For all UEFA's rhetoric about upgrading the standing of this competition (which includes, they proudly announce, of all things, a new logo), keeping it as a safety net for sides who drop out of the higher grade event can do nothing to cure its inferiority complex.

This feature also makes it a devilish tournament for backers to study, that is without looking into the facts and figures of this competition. How it works and how we should play it on Betfair.

In terms of format, during the next two weeks, 38 teams will progress to the group stage through the Europa League's own qualification procedure (domestic cup winners, runners-up from minor UEFA affiliates, the big leagues 'lesser clubs' and various Fair Play winners). They will be joined by a further 10 teams who, during this same fortnight, will be knocked out at the final qualifying round for the Champions League. This will leave 48 clubs, to be split into 12 groups containing 4 sides each, who then play a round-robin, home and away format between now and Christmas.

The top two sides from each of the 12 groups then progress to the last 32 which starts in February 2010 ... when they are joined by the 8 teams who finish third in the Champions League group stage.

Then, finally, the knock-out element to the tournament begins and the sides play a standard format down to an eventual final in Hamburg on May 12, 2010.

Whether you're a backer or a layer, looking at the tournament as a whole, you need to know how much effect this hybrid system has on the eventual outcome. With so many different teams dropping out, and more importantly with a large number dropping in, how big a bearing do these changes have on the outright market.

Putting next February to one side, which we can discuss in more detail at a later date, the subject which concerns us now on Betfair is the current market. The 38 teams who will qualify as of right for the Europa League through its own preliminary rounds ... and then the 10 who will come in next week e.g. the loser of the Celtic/Arsenal tie.

Where is the winner more likely to come from?

Statistically speaking, the findings couldn't be more conclusive. In the last 10 seasons, 1999-00 to 2008-09, no team which has dropped out of the Champions League at the Third Qualifying Stage (where Celtic/Arsenal are now) has gone on to win the UEFA Cup. In fact, most haven't even come close.

Take the last three seasons as a random sample. And, please note, in these years there were actually 16 clubs who dropped into the UEFA Cup from the Champions League, not the 10 there are this year, so the chances of success for these 'parachute' teams were even greater than they are now.

In 2006-07 the 16 ex-Champions League teams made it to Round 1 (9), Group Stages (3), Round 32 (2), Round 16 (1) and the SF (1).

In 2007-08 it was Round 1 (6), Group Stages (6), Round 32 (3) and Round 16 (1).

In 2008-09 it was Round 1 (7), Group Stages (5), Round 32 (3) and Round 16 (1).

That equates to 46% of the teams falling at the first hurdle and a huge 75% failing to progress past the group stages of the UEFA Cup (or Europa Cup as it is now).

Therefore, taking the logical view, the loser of the Celtic/Arsenal tie, along with the other nine teams who fail to make the Champions League proper, should be treated with extreme caution and look to have solid laying potential. Once they've lost in one competition, they very soon lose in another.

Flip that on its head and what you find, statistically, is that the 38 other clubs in the draw come next week all stand a much better chance of success.

Now, the examination of their chances can take many forms, based on all manner of criteria, and this is another discussion for a later date. The pressing question you need to ask now is whether you'll get better odds next week once these supposedly better teams enter the fray? Quite possibly.

For now we'd point out that our studies of the last 10 years of UEFA Cup action show that of the last four teams in each year's tournament (two losing semi-finalists, the runner-up and winner), making a sample group of 40 in all, the most came from Spain (8), next came Germany (7), then Italy and England (5) and Russia (4). That's 73% from just five countries.

By applying two simple filters (a) tournament origin and (b) country of origin we see that the field is whittled down considerably. With regards to the current market leaders on Betfair, each of Roma [12.5], Villareal [16.0], Valencia [21.0] and Werder Bremen [21.0] certainly fit the bill and merit serious consideration.

So for all UEFA's interference with this competition - the changes of name, format and even the logo! - it still provides a betting market which, like any other, can be studied and ultimately solved ... but only after a bit extra effort.