Europa League Betting: Benfica v Everton

Europa League / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 21 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

Former Valencia man Pablo Aimar is back to something like his best for Benfica this season and is the player who makes the team tick in an classical number 10 role.

"Most of Everton’s injury problems are at the back and the likes of Saviola, Cardozo and Di Maria won’t need any second invitations to capitalise on the sort of errors that take place when a back five who aren’t used to playing together take to the field. "

Everton are two from two in the Europa League so far this season but a trip to Benfica's Estadio Da Luz will represent one of the toughest away days they'll face all year in any competition and they're likely to come back empty-handed, says Jamie Pacheco.

I've waited 29 years to watch my Portuguese team play my English team. But having trawled through the history books I've just found out that even if I'd been born in the days when Benfica's great Eusebio terrorised every defence on the planet, I still wouldn't have seen them play each other by now. Which is hardly surprising seeing as these two have never met in an official match. Right then, now that we've established there's no head-to-head records to go by, we can start analysing the other factors that we can and should take into account before making a reasoned judgement on what our betting selections are for this match.

The stats say that Benfica have won four, drawn two and lost four of all their home matches against English opposition in Europe. Whereas I don't see the relevance of going back to the days of the aforementioned Eusebio and George Best to find any clues as to what will happen in this match, I do think that the last two fixtures should be taken into account given they were played in the last few years. In December 2005 a Benfica side decimated by injuries beat Manchester United 2-1 in the group stages of the Champions League, which knocked Sir Alex Ferguson's men out. Just over a year later they repeated the trick by beating Liverpool both home and away in the knock-out stages of the very same competition. Few would argue that both those starting elevens on the night were stronger than whatever Everton put out on Thursday night but far more significantly, the eleven that Benfica put out this time round will be far stronger than the ones that won those two matches.

Take a look at the likely starting eleven for tomorrow night and you might have to double-check that these aren't the players turning out for a top Serie A or La Liga side. Centre-back Luisao is a regular starter for World Cup favourites Brazil as is midfield dynamo Ramires. It wasn't too long ago that striker Javier Saviola was a regular for both Barcelona and Argentina before a serious drop in form; Pablo Aimar, another one tipped for great things pulls the strings in midfield and £25m-rated Angel Di Maria (who started both of Argentina's last two matches in World Cup qualifying) alternates from one wing to the other creating havoc with a series of step-overs and bursts of pace. Former Real Madrid man Javi Garcia is the side's "water-carrier" which also features a tall, left-footed, target-man in the form of Paraguyan international Oscar Cardozo, who reminds me of a slightly more mild-mannered Duncan Ferguson.

Perhaps their greatest asset though is boss Jorge Jesus. The former Braga coach has paid his dues in numerous Portuguese clubs, both in the top and second division, before finally landing a big gig. And the gamble taken by Benfica's Director of Football Rui Costa (yes, the same) is paying off so far with Benfica sitting pretty in second-place in the league behind Braga, who boast an incredible seven wins from seven. No surprise Braga are in such a good state, last year they were managed by...Jorge Jesus.

All of which draws me to the [1.98] available on the Portuguese giants. Also because Everton are going through an indifferent vein of form, as demonstrated by consecutive 1-1 home draws against Stoke and Wolves. Yes, they beat AEK Athens comfortably at home and BATE Borisov 2-1 away but the Greek team are not good travellers and the Belarussians have never won in Europe. They will also have to tackle Jorge Jesus' side without regulars Steven Pienaar, Joseph Yobo and Leon Osman through injury, in addition to Johnny Heitinga and Lucas Neill who are ineligible. Benfica have virtually a full squad to pick from.

In addition to a Benfica win, I also expect goals. Most of Everton's injury problems are at the back and the likes of Saviola, Cardozo and Di Maria won't need any second invitations to capitalise on the sort of errors that take place when a back five who aren't used to playing together take to the field. A 1-0 defeat away to Burnley was the only match so far this season where Everton failed to score so I'd expect them to contribute at least one to ensure our wager of over 2.5 goals at [2.06] comes good. On the first goalscorer market Cardozo, who has a monopoly on free-kicks and penalties is the outstanding choice at around [6.0] with Luisao, so dangerous in the air from set-pieces (as Liverpool found out to their cost), a suitable outsider at [24.0].