Europa League Betting: Aston Villa's campaign can be over before it's started

Europa League / Richard Aikman / 26 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

James Milner's Aston Villa could make a shock exit in the Europa League at the hands of Rapid Vienna.

Recommended Bets: Rapid Vienna to beat Aston Villa @ 12.0; Back over 2.5 goals in Roma v Kosice @ 1.41.

Richard Aikman looks at the betting in Aston Villa v Rapid Vienna, Roma v Kosice and Zenit St Petersburg v Nacional before we reach the Group Stages of the Europa League.

Aston Villa v Rapid Vienna

If Aston Villa are to get through to the group stages of the Europa League they will need to improve on the slow starts they have made in each of their three matches to date. Martin O'Neill's side, who are [1.33] to beat Rapid Vienna, shipped a goal in either half when losing 2-0 to Wigan on the opening game of the season, conceded after just 40 seconds in the first leg of this tie in Austria and, although they beat Liverpool 3-1 on Monday, were lucky not to go behind during a dreadful opening 20 minutes at Anfield.
The Liverpool win - ably assisted by glaring mistakes by Lucas and Steven Gerrard - was a shot in the arm to Villa but it cannot mask the void that has been left by the absence of Gareth Barry and Martin Laursen. The spine of the Villa side has been drastically weakened and if goalkeeper Brad Friedel - whose heroics kept Liverpool a bay this week - is left out again as he was for the first-leg defeat, Villa's European adventure could be over before it has begun.

O'Neill rested four players for the away leg and you get the feeling that he would rather not expose his thin squad to the rigours of all that European travel this campaign if it means the kind of Premier League capitulation the club suffered last season. Rapid were rarely troubled by Villa in Austria, are brimming with confidence after a 4-1 thrashing of LASK on Sunday and they will feel that if Wigan can win at Villa Park then surely they can too.

Villa do have the class to win if at their best, but consistency is the preserve of experienced sides. The English side's failure to nick that vital away goal is an added concern. At [12.0] the Austrians are simply too well-priced to ignore and [6.0] about the draw is also worth a cheeky flutter. As a wider, more-encompassing alternative just lay Villa at [1.33]

Back Rapid Vienna to win at [12.0]; Back the draw at [6.0]

Roma v Kosice

While Roma appear to be banging their heads against brick walls in their fruitless quest to sign a striker, recent results suggest it is the other end of the pitch that needs their foremost attention. The Giallorossi have let in six goals in their last two matches and those statistics alone would suggest that defensive cover should be priority numero uno.

Until they sort out their back line, though, punters can make hay while the sun shines. The Serie A side are suffering from a raft of injuries at present and although the dependable centre-back Juan is likely to be back for the visit of Juventus this weekend, he is unlikely to be risked for the second leg against Kosice.

All of which means that over 2.5 goals is worth backing even if [1.41] isn't the most generous price in the world. Roma play an attacking 4-2-3-1 formation which has already produced eight goals in four competitive matches for Francesco Totti alone (the club captain also scored five against Gent in the Third Quaifying Round).

The fact that Kosice, who are marooned at the foot of the Slovakian league, managed three goals in the first leg at all is more to do with Roma's defensive frailties than the Slovakian side's attacking threat. Kosice have lost their last five domestic fixtures and have no chance of winning in Rome.

Back over 2.5 goals at [1.41]; Back Half-time/Full time Roma/Roma at [1.44]

Zenit St Petersburg v Nacional

A disappointing season for Zenit St Petersburg was compounded by their 4-3 away defeat to little-known Nacional last week and now the 2008 Uefa Cup winners are facing the very real prospect of going out to a side that lie second to bottom in the Portuguese standings.

Nacional's domestic plight is misleading, though, as they have only played twice so far in the league and their opening fixtures came against Sporting Lisbon, whom they creditably held to a 1-1 draw, and Porto, who beat them 3-0.

Indeed Zenit's situation could have been considerably worse given that Nacional were two goals up on them in Madeira until Fatih Tekke reduced the arrears in injury time to keep the Russians in touch. The St Petersburg outfit are no longer the force of old after losing star players Anatoliy Tymoshchuk to Bayern Munich and Pavel Pogrebnyak to Stuttgart, not to mention Andriy Arshavin who left last January, and replacing them with the likes of Torino forward Alessandro Rosina.

Even the once esteemed Dick Advocaat, who publicly slammed the signing of Rosina, was dismissed recently, after his side went four matches without a win. Caretaker boss Anatoly Davydov has since presided over the 4-2 defeat of Amkar Perm and a 1-1 draw at home to Lokomotiv Moscow, but with Zenit having failed to a home league match since July 7, Nacional at [5.0] are value for the draw that would see them through.

Back the draw at [5.0];