Euro 2012 Betting: How to find the winner

Euro 2012 / Matthew Walton / 02 September 2010 / Leave a Comment

Ukraine's President ponders where it all went wrong for Shevchenko

"Can the Spanish win again? The law of averages says they can’t retain their title - no country has ever won the Euros back-to-back - nor can they win a third consecutive tournament."

Are football punters as deluded as England fans? The odds available on Fabio Capello's men winning Euro 2012 suggest so. Matthew Walton reports.

The recent World Cup has had a far from a seismic effect on the betting for the next major tournament, Euro 2012.

The week before the action started in South Africa the European 'pecking order' was headed by Spain followed by the trio of England, Holland and Germany. Then came Italy, France and Portugal.

Fast forward a couple of months and the list is surprisingly similar. Defending European and world champions Spain [5.0] continue as market leaders for Euro 2012. Germany [6.4], Holland [9.2] and England [10.5] all remain next in line, even if their positions have changed as a result of their World Cup exploits. Or England's lack of them.

We then find Italy [14.0], France [16.0] and Portugal [19.0] as the 'best of the rest' with the likes of Russia [26.0], Croatia [36.0] and Ukraine [48.0] completing the top 10.

With the nine qualifying groups for Euro 2010 about to start, each of these nations has been drawn in their own section (A to I) with Ukraine, as joint hosts along with Poland, getting a bye into the finals.

Can the Spanish win again? The law of averages says they can't retain their title (no country has ever won the Euro's back-to-back) nor can they win a third consecutive tournament. A rather flimsy argument, it must be said, not to back them again - especially as Del Bosque's side are [5.0] to win in 2012 and were only [5.3] to win the World Cup with Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay included - but their global and continental dominance will surely come under increasing threat in the coming months.

The three-time former Euro winners (and three times finalists), Germany looked a young and talented side in South Africa. Another two years experience and Herren Ozil, Mueller, Schweinsteiger & Co. could well reverse the form of that World Cup SF defeat and their previous loss to Spain in the final of Euro 2008.

Holland similarly have potential if their efforts are directed more into kicking the ball than their opponents whilst stronger showings must be expected from Italy, France (by then presumably rebuilt, and less inclined to revolt, under the astute direction of Laurent Blanc) and England - who were simply too bad to be true in South Africa.

Furthermore, with just 16 countries going to post in these finals, it's worth remembering there is one less round in the Euro's than the World Cup. Teams will progress straight from the group stage to the QF's. As such, countries we might consider the 'lesser teams' like Russia, Croatia and possibly Serbia [50.0], will be one round further into the tournament. One round nearer the payout counter ...

In terms of statistics, there is greater probability of another name on the trophy given the fact that in the previous 13 Euro competitions there have been no fewer than eight different winners - Germany (3), France and Spain (2), Greece, Denmark, Czechoslovakia, Italy and Russia. In South Africa, Spain became the eighth different country to win the World Cup from a total of 19 tournaments.

Consider these factors together: (A) The law of averages or, probably more accurately, the forecast erosion of Spain's current advantage (B) The expected improvement of already strong countries over the next couple of years (C) The return to form of traditionally strong footballing nations before Euro 2012 is staged (D) The format of the finals themselves (E) the peculiar pattern of past results in this tournament.

This makes for a less than compelling case to back Spain. They seem more of a lay, if anything, at their current mark. It also demands an assessment of whether Holland, or more likely Germany, can kick-on from South Africa and compete for top spot in Europe, of which they certainly look capable.

Finally, can the 'fallen powers' (France, Italy, England) re-group in the next 24 months and re-invent themselves or will this be another competition like 1992 or 2004 when there is a major shock ...