Round the World in 600 Words: January transfer activity can seriously shake up long-term markets

Champions League / Ben Lyttleton / 05 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

As financial crises set in at football clubs the same as they do everywhere else, key players such as Valencia's David Villa and Genoa's David Milito could be sold to balance the books. Ben Lyttleton looks at who else might be on the move and rounds up the European action from the weekend.

The Spanish league was back in action this weekend after a winter break and it was business as usual for Barcelona, who maintained their 12-point lead at the top with a 3-1 win over Real Mallorca. The stand-out moment was the return of Andres Iniesta, who ended two months out with a thigh injury by coming off the substitutes' bench and scoring Barca's second goal. Iniesta
was a key player before his injury and his return makes the leaders' title price of ([1.12]) even less appealing for the layers.

Pep Guardiola is unlikely to dip into the January transfer window - there's no need to mess with a winning formula - while the same cannot be said of Real Madrid, whose new coach Juande Ramos gave debuts to Klaas-Jan Huntelaar and Lassana Diarra (or 'Lass', as he is known on the back of his shirt to avoid confusion with Mahamadou Diarra) in their 1-0 win over Villarreal.

Once again, Real were indebted to some quality saves from Iker Casillas and a moment of magic from Arjen Robben, who needs to stay clear of injury if Real hope to seriously challenge Barcelona, a genuine long shot as their price of [14.5] suggests. A better bet is the ([1.14)] to finish in the top three, and ([2.16]) to get past Liverpool in the Champions League.

Sevilla missed the chance to go second by drawing 1-1 at bottom club Osasuna and so Valencia are currently sitting pretty behind Barca, though their 3-1 win over Atletico Madrid was overshadowed by striker David Villa's comments that he would be happy to stay at the club until the end of his contract in 2014.

The Euro 2008 Golden Boot winner, who is ([3.6]) to finish La Liga's top scorer, could still be January's highest-profile transfer given his club's financial problems. If he does move, the current ([4.2]) price to lay a top-three finish looks tempting, even if Valencia don't have the Champions League distraction that could affect fellow top-three contenders Villarreal, who are ([2.3]) for a top three finish.

The transfer window could have a major effect on the selling clubs hit hard by the possible departure of key players. In England, Portsmouth's price of [4.2] to go down looks very high if Jermain Defoe, Sylvain Distin and Glen Johnson follow 'Lass' out of Fratton Park, and across Europe, teams are battling to hold onto their prize assets. Serie A's top scorer Diego Milito
has been linked with a move to Inter Milan, who are hoping to offload Adriano this month: the Argentine has scored 12 of Genoa's 24 league goals and his departure could turn their challenge for Europe into a battle to avoid the drop.

Two potential transfers in Germany could determine the outcome of the Bundesliga, with Bayern Munich close to buying Ivica Olic from Hamburg and winter champions Hoffenheim fighting to keep Bundesliga top-scorer Vedad Ibisevic from Europe's bigger clubs. If those moves do come off, Bayern's ([1.55]) price is bound to come in while Ibisevic, currently seven goals clear in the scoring charts, is a ([1.55]) price to lay in the top-scorer
market.

There was weekend action in Portugal, where Porto went top of the table for the first time this season after beating Nacional 4-2 while Trofense shocked Benfica with a 2-0 win. Although they are in the Champions League last 16, Porto also face a battle to keep captain Lucho Gonzalez and top scorer Lisandro Lopez, who could double his €1.5m annual salary if he moves to
England. Porto coach Jesualdo Ferreira has lost Anderson, Jose Bosingwa and Ricardo Quaresma in recent seasons and will fight tooth and nail to keep his stars until the summer - but if one of those players does move on, watch Porto's price drift. Benfica are stronger than in previous years and their ([2.82]) title price is worth
considering.

France's big clubs struggled in the French Cup this weekend, Marseille needed penalties to beat Besancon, Auxerre and Nice lost to lower-division opposition while PSG and Monaco both beat fourth- and fifth-division sides respectively 1-0. Seventh-division Schirrhein were rewarded for their 4-2 win over Ligue 2's Clermont Foot with a home draw against Toulouse. Lyon's
tie against Concarneau was postponed and the winners can look forward to a home game against Marseille in the round of 32. Marseille, meanwhile, are still looking for a striker and coach Eric Gerets has added Henrik Larsson to his list of targets.