Champions League Topscorer: Believe stats over popular wisdom

Champions League / Matthew Walton / 29 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

"Magical" Matthew Walton goes through the history books to discover that the Champions League topscorer isn't always a player involved in the final. But who exactly should our money be on?

Popular wisdom would have it that the best teams win the biggest trophies. And in the best teams we find the best players. And, in the case of the best strikers, they're the ones who score the most goals.

Now that, as a simple piece of logical thinking, isn't redefining the footballing 'theory of relativity'. It's describing a phenomenon that is consistent with most people's understanding of the game.

However, the key word in the above statement is 'simple'. It's a simple assumption to make that the highest scorers are to be found amongst the best, and most successful, sides. What's more, as students of the form, we know that popular wisdom and factual evidence don't always go hand in hand (or foot in boot, if you like). And, if you want to make money on Betfair, you often have to defy such widely held opinions and go with the statistical evidence which is readily available to the betting academic.

One test of the above notion can be found this week as our attention returns to the Champions League. If the best strikers are to be found at the tournament's best clubs, then surely our search for the Top Goalscorer in the competition should start and finish with the team most likely to win it. That's where our money should be going.

Or so you would think. The investigation of this claim led us to leaf through the history books and see whether the Champions of Europe do indeed capture their prize by including among their ranks the continent's leading scorer.

The study we're interested in is the main competition itself as qualifying goals don't count in the market proper.

Now the Champions League has altered in format several times in recent seasons as extra mini-league groups have been added and dropped, and extra knock-out rounds have been added and dropped. The overall effect has been that Manchester United played 13 matches en route to last season's title whereas AC Milan played 17 in winning in 2003, Juventus only 11 when they landed the prize in 1996.

There is an argument that different formats will affect the results - e.g. more knockout rounds would see top players playing all matches but a more group orientated competition might allow for players to be rested if teams were already qualified/eliminated. Maybe so, hence our study looks at the last 15 years as a whole, with no distinction for the format, in an effort to produce a single result.

The first thing which stands out is that the recent winners are all pretty much the usual suspects. We have Ronaldo (2007/08), Kaka (2006/07), Shevchenko (2005/06) and Van Nistelrooy (2004/05, 2002/03 & 2001/02), Morientes (2003/04) and Raul (2000/01).

What's more, they've all scored roughly the same amount of goals - the spread is between 8 and 12 for any given winner.

More interesting, however, is the fact that only Ronaldo and Kaka played for the year's winning club, Manchester United and AC Milan. Shevchenko's AC Milan side and Raul's Madrid both lost in the SF's, Morientes helped Monaco make it to the final but they lost to Porto and as for Van Nistelrooy, his three efforts were all to no avail as Manchester United lost in the Round of 16, QF's and SF's respectively.

Hence, we find the players are familiar, and the sides are familiar, but of the eight examples highlighted we see just two of the leading strikers playing for the eventual winners (25%). The rest being made up of one RU, three SF's and two early baths.

Going further back we find a three-way tie in 1999/2000 with Rivaldo, Mario Jardel and Raul all bagging 10 goals apiece. The form figures of their teams (Barcelona, Porto and Real Madrid) were SF's- QF's-W.

In 1998/99 it was Shevchenko, then of Dynamo Kiev, and Dwight Yorke of Manchester United on 8 goals. Kiev made the SF's and United beat Bayern Munich in that final.

The list is then completed with Del Piero (1997/98), Riedle & Pantic (1996/97), Litmanen (1995/96), Weah (1994/95) and Stoichkov (1993/94). For these five years only Riedle's Borussia Dortmund lifted the trophy, the others played for clubs who could only muster three RU's, one SF and a Group Stage exit between them.

During the last 15 seasons there have been 19 players who have been top scorer (or joint top scorer) and the clubs of those players won five times (26%), were runners-up four times (21%) and SF's on six occasions (32%). Then we have two QF's (11%) and one each of the Round of 16 and the Group Stages (the remaining 10%).

So, the evidence is clear, you're not looking for the best side, just one of the best sides. After all, the difference between making the final and making the SF's is only one extra game where a striker may not score or even play.

Furthermore, penalty-takers do feature heavily. In recent seasons, Ronaldo, Kaka, Shevchenko and Van Nistelrooy were all regularly taking spot kicks and players like Raul and Rivaldo also notched the odd goal from 12 yards.

We should be mindful as well of players like Rivaldo, Ronaldo and Del Piero of Juventus who were also no strangers to free-kicks. Dead-ball specialists, as much as penalty takers, are of equal appeal to what you might consider out-and-out strikers.

Taking this analysis onto the market you'd have to seriously consider midfielders such a Steven Gerrard (joint 2nd last season with 6 goals) and Frank Lampard (already off the mark against Bordeaux). Gerrard is [19.5] but Lampard [42.0] is a huge price given his profile and that of his team, Chelsea.

Ronaldo ([14.0]) is a tricky one as he may change clubs in January and can he really be counted on to repeat that wonder season? Better maybe to stick with the proven form as Van Nistelrooy [12.0] has scored already in Real's first match and is a three time winner.

Sergio Aguero [11.5] has two goals for Athletico Madrid but how far will they go - or need they to go for him to feature? He could still win the market even if the Spaniards bomb out early.

Overall it's a fascinating study and a great market on Betfair once you've taken the chance to study the facts. Remember, the winner of the trophy probably won't contain the competition's leading scorer ... so much for popular wisdom!