Champions League Final Odds: Why this may be the most important man on the pitch...

Champions League / Editor / 26 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

Swiss referee Massimo Busacca has a key role on Wednesday night in Rome. Ben Lyttleton explains how you could profit from the decisions he makes...

Here's a good pub quiz question for you: how many players have been sent off in a European Cup or Champions League final? Bear in mind there have been 52 of them so far, and although it¹s a big game and everyone is on best behaviour, the referees are from different countries to the teams, and sometimes apply slightly different criteria to offences.

The answer may come as a surprise, though should be considered when looking at the cards market before this eagerly-awaited Champions League final: only two, Jens Lehmann 20 minutes into Barcelona¹s last success, the 2-1 win over Arsenal in 2006, and Dider Drogba last year. Both dismissals changed the game: the first one as, although Arsenal took the lead, their 10 men ran out of steam late on and Barcelona scored twice, while last year Drogba was missed in the penalty shoot-out.

Based on that knowledge, the price of any red card at ([4.8]) seems about right. Perhaps that price considers the view of former Barcelona star Hristo Stoichkov, who believes that the difference between this side and his team, which won the European Cup in 1992, is in its toughness.

"I find this team a bit naïve," he said.

"In our dream team we could always count on a Koeman or a Nadal, or even a Stoichkov to get stuck in when things got sticky. I'm not sure there is someone these days who can do the same. When they're up against a team which is less inclined to be dictated to, who will be there to show the right aggression and to reassure the players?"

So far in the Champions League, Barcelona have picked up 21 yellow cards in their 12 matches so far: a low total, perhaps helped by their total domination of some of the games: beating Basel 5-0, Sporting and Lyon 5-2, and Bayern Munich 4-0. In fact, when the pressure was really on and they were struggling against Chelsea in the semi-final, they picked up five yellows and a red card over the two games. United have only earned 11 yellows in the competition this season.

The other key factor in this market is of course the referee, Massimo Busacca. The Swiss official is fairly lenient but is not shy of making big decisions in big games: he awarded United the penalty that Cristiano Ronaldo missed in the Barcelona-Man U semi-final first leg last year, a game in which he only booked two players. But he controversially dismissed Denmark's Niclas Jensen and coach Morten Olsen in a World Cup qualifier against Spain and sent off Vladyslav Vashchuk in Ukraine¹s 4-0 loss to Spain in the World Cup itself. Conspiracy theorists who have spotted the link - that Spain were the beneficiaries on both occasions - may fancy that United will go down to 10 men, but given their disciplinary record, I find the prospect unlikely.

Although Stoichkov believes that Barcelona lack a hard-man, another former Champions League winner with the club, Deco, thinks that this Barcelona are a tougher unit than the 2006 side which he played in (and which, incidentally, were shown three yellows in that final against Arsenal).

"This team closes down more than Rijkaard's did. It's more of a team than a collection of individuals, like it was before," said Deco.

"Eto'o sums it up: he is a lethal goalscorer who can finish off a match, but he is also the first to defend."

That defensive ability, starting from high up the pitch, just like United (for whom Wayne Rooney is an important defensive player) could produce value in the Bookings Odds market, where 9pts and over is ([2.56]). With the stakes so high, and forwards flying in to make tackles throughout the game, it could be one to follow.

Recommended bets:
No red card @ ([1.24])
Boookings Odds (@ [2.56])