Champions League Final Betting: Statistics point to profits

Champions League / Matthew Walton / 26 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

Matthew Walton has gone through the numbers ahead of the Champions League final so you don't have to!

There have been 21 different winners of the European Cup - now known as the Champions League of course - during the past 53 years. How many can you name?

Well, the answers will be given in due course but these 21 assorted teams have come from a variety of 10 different countries. Currently it's Italy, Spain and England who lead the way with 11 wins apiece, followed by Germany and Holland (6), Portugal (4), France, Scotland, Romania and Serbia (all 1 each).

Of course, come Wednesday night either Spain or England will assume full continental bragging rights as regards to being Europe's most successful nation with either Manchester United or Barcelona lifting the Champions League trophy in Rome.

But for those of us who don't support either team or don't feel any great allegiance to either country or don't really care who wins, when it comes to the subject of bragging rights they depend, quite simply, upon how much money we've won on the game itself. That's the real measure of success. As a result, we set ourselves the task of thumbing through the formbook to shed some light on this traditional climax to the European season - to determine where best to invest on Betfair.

Starting with the most obvious market, similar to the recent UEFA Cup final, the match odds show the sides being pretty evenly matched as Manchester United [2.74] currently edge favouritism over Barcelona [2.84] - but it's a matter of fractions - while the draw is available at [3.45].

Looking back over the past few years, the 90 minute draw has happened not only last year but in four of the last eight seasons - it's a very live runner indeed - as there have been stalemates in each of 2008, 2005, 2003 and 2001.

This leads on to a further consideration regarding the 'method of victory' market. As we saw in Istanbul last week with Shakhtar Donetsk, their win came in extra time thus turning a team who traded in the 90 minute market at around [2.86] into a winner in excess of [12.0].

Obviously, the side who wins the trophy can only win it in one of three ways (inside 90 minutes, during extra-time or on penalties). If you fancy the draw in 90 minutes then immediately you're presented with some big prices - Barcelona to win in extra-time [14.5] or on penalties [13.5] with Manchester United [12.5] and [12.0] respectively for the same manner of victory.

You can even hedge your bets by backing either of Barca's two possible winning ways at combined odds of [7.50] or United at [5.50]. Worth considering in a match which could very well be close and historically has been tight. In fact, we've seen six of the last 15 finals settled by the odd goal with a further four ending in draws.

The possibility of extra-time might also be heightened by the moderate amount of goals in Champions League deciders. We all remember the Liverpool/AC Milan encounter of 2005 but that six goal thriller was the exception rather than the norm.

Yes, we do see goals (the only 0-0 draw in the last 15 years came in 2003) but we don't tend to see a deluge. Those last 15 finals have produced 40 goals which, at an average of 2.66 goals/game, is nothing out of the ordinary.

For those keen on the over/under markets, over 1.5 goals has to be taken as a 'good thing' with 12 of the last 15 finals producing at least two goals or more - that's 80% or equivalent odds of [1.25] - and we're being offered [1.41] on this match. How good is that?

The choice of over 2.5 goals is similarly appealing. When you study the form, there have actually been nine out of the last 15 finals which have generated over 2.5 goals - that's 60% or true odds of [1.66]. All of which makes the available price of [2.30] seem like extremely good value, more so when you consider the attacking talent on show.

As for a correct score bet the two leading candidates have to be 2-1 either way (no fewer than 4 times in the last 10 years) and possibly a saver on the 1-1 draw - which we saw last year in Moscow as well as back in 2001.

Manchester United are [13.0] to win by the odd goal in three with Barcelona currently trading at [13.5] and the 1-1 draw is priced at [7.4]. Furthermore, backing any one of these options, where both teams have to score, will keep any bets live for longer and more open to in-running trades.

Another market which merits a mention as a result of our investigations is the half-time score as here we've only seen one goalless first half in the last decade - quite surprising when you think about it. With the 45 minute 0-0 result presently around the [2.72] mark this looks much more of a lay than a back.

And, finally, it's also worth noting that unlike the UEFA Cup final, where the team who scores first tends to go on and lift the trophy, in the Champions League over the last dozen years the side scoring first has only triumphed seven times, a fraction over 50/50. This game could well have a few twists and turns.

Overall, what is clear from a study of all of the data, and most of the markets, is that the final could very well be a close run affair. Barcelona might be a little light in defence but have much to offer in attack, United appear solid throughout the side, both sides have vast European experience, have just won their domestic titles and have already shared several notable encounters in the past (United, of course, in their most recent match-up, knocking out the Spanish side in last year's semi-finals).

But even if you do expect a tight game, the statistics we've discussed and the markets we've highlighted point to several clear strategies related to certain markets which should give you every opportunity of sharing in the celebrations come 90 minutes ... or after extra-time ... or penalties.

And, to answer our original question - Manchester United, Liverpool, Nottingham Forest, Aston Villa, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Juventus, AC Milan, Inter Milan, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Hamburg, Benfica, Porto, Feyenoord, Ajax, PSV, Celtic, Marseille, Red Star Belgrade and Steaua Bucharest.

Enjoy the final!