Champions League Final Betting Preview: Finding the value in crowded markets

Champions League / Dave Farrar / 27 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

Dave Farrar considers all the betting angles on European football's biggest night.

One of the difficulties with punting on the Champions League final is that, as a European football fan, you almost feel duty bound to have a bet. It's never a great starting point, as value should come above everything, so congratulations to all of you who are already sitting on green books, or big prices, particularly those who had the guts and the foresight to back Barcelona in the outright market when they trailed Chelsea in the dying embers of that seminal semi-final.

For those of us who don't have Barca at over [20.0], the two jobs today are to be disciplined and look for what value there is in the multitude of markets available on Betfair, and also to make sure that we enjoy what should be a fabulous game.

The starting point of any bet is to have an opinion on how the game will be played out. Manchester United are worthy favourites at [2.76], and there is a chance that they will simply be too strong for a depleted Barca side and win comfortably: if Sir Alex Ferguson' team are on song, they could even do to Barcelona what Milan did in 1994, and rip them apart. If you fancy another 4-0, then "any unquoted" in the Correct Score market is trading at a generous looking [14.0].

I think that United are the likeliest winners, but also that too much is being made of Barcelona's defensive absentees. Of course they'll miss Rafael Marquez, Eric Abidal and Dani Alves, but Yaya Toure did a good job at centre half in the semi-final, the full back deputies are capable and experienced, and Barca's goals against record isn't impressive because their team is packed with wonderful defenders, but rather because they are so good at dominating possession in the midfield.

That's why Xavi and Iniesta are more important to them defensively than anyone else, as they dictate the way that the Catalans play, and they are at the heart of that 90 minute game of keepball which sucks the life out of their opponents. Iniesta's fitness is one of the keys to this game, and the bulletins surrounding him are good, so don't stake your account on Barca being overrun by United's pace going forward: they'll need to get the ball before they can do that.

One area in which Barcelona do struggle is defending set pieces, and United have so many aerial threats that a goal from a corner or free kick is more than likely. You can back John O'Shea at [20.0], Nemanja Vidic at [10.0] and Rio Ferdinand at [19.0] to score at any time in the game, and one of those prices is worth taking. My preference is for Vidic, who has a habit of scoring important goals, and would fit something of a pattern of central defenders scoring in Champions League finals. Sol Campbell, Lucio and Paolo Maldini have all done so in recent years, and Vidic provides us with a bit of value.

The perception seems to be that the game will be cagey, and I certainly think that it will start in that manner, but will then blossom. Don't be too misled by last season's two semi-final games between these two, which produced only one goal, as this is a very different Barcelona side, playing with much more confidence and panache, and that will spark United's creative urges. The over 2.5 goals market will be worth looking at in-running, and could drift significantly from a starting point of [2.26]. I would look to play that after 20 minutes or so, and take advantage of the well used statistic that seven of the last 10 Champions League finals have had over 2.5 goals. You can also lay 0-79 in the total goal minutes market at around [3.2], but I'd rather let that over 2.5 price go to [2.9], and then back the overs, as I feel that the game will blossom the further it goes on. These two teams score late goals, and we should keep that fact on our side. And when else will you get the chance to back over 2.5 goals at odds against in a game involving two of the most attacking teams in Europe?

The other bet which interests me is corners. These two had the highest corners make ups in this season's Champions league, taking a total of 162 between them, and so a lay of 9 or under in the corners odds market at [2.3] is an intelligent play around which to base your Final strategy. That should give us a rock solid base from which to work, and allow us to play a couple of the other markets in-running, and, on this night of all nights, give us a chance to actually enjoy the game.

I really hope that Barcelona will be European champions tonight, but my main hope is that the match lives up to the hype. If it does, it could be quite a ride.

Click here to listen to the European Football Show: Final Fantasy, a full match betting preview presented by Dave Farrar with Gabriele Marcotti and Ben Lyttleton, and contributions from Stewart Robson and David Pleat.

Recommendations...

Look to back over 2.5 goals in-running @ [2.9] and upwards.