Champions League / Matthew Walton / 22 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

The name of Real Madrid isn't to be found amongst this year's favourites for the Champions League but Juande Ramos' men could very well provide at worst a very decent trading opportunity, says "Magical" Matthew Walton.

Form is temporary but class is permanent - so the saying goes. And that statement certainly rings true when it comes to football.

How often have we seen the great players summon up a match-winning performance out of nowhere? Can you count the number of times when an out of sorts (but traditionally strong) side magically rediscover their form to win a big match?

It happens more frequently than we think ... and when it does, it can cost us money. Unless, that is, we're wise to such possibilities and are prepared to look a little deeper than the superficial form which most punters rely upon. Then we stop losing money - and actually start winning!

Take this year's Champions League, many see it as a competition at the mercy of the Premier League. One of the Chelsea ([7.4]), Manchester United ([7.8]), Liverpool ([13.0]) or Arsenal ([16.0]) will surely prevail.

However, if there is to be a challenge to the English elite, it will only come from a handful of teams i.e. Inter Milan ([9.2]), Bayern Munich ([17.0)] and notably, from Spain, Barcelona ([4.7]).

But is that it? Can only three sides be considered as serious threats to the British quartet.

One side missing from the above list just happens to be the most successful team in the history of European club football, the nine times champions of Europe, the side with the most European Cup wins and the joint most Champions League trophies. Real Madrid.

Is it right that we should ignore such a side? Now that the competition is down to the knock-out phase - where anything can happen - it does seem a little strange that many punters have dismissed them almost out of hand.

We took the time to assess the chances of the Galacticos, weighing up their respective strengths and weaknesses (something which many backers/layers won't do) in order to determine whether Real are value to be crowned 'Europe's top club side' once again - for a record 10th time since 1955.

Firstly, you can't discount the pedigree of Madrid. They have appeared in a record 12 finals over the 53 years of the tournament, winning nine and finishing runners-up on three occasions.

You might argue that such data is distorted by their five straight wins from 1956-1960 but look at the Champions League in isolation. Since 1992, when the current name and format were adopted, Real have landed the trophy three times (1997/98, 1999/00 and 2001/02) a record they share with AC Milan.

Furthermore, only Manchester United have played more and won more matches in the competition over the last 16 seasons (and that's only because United have qualified 14 times to Madrid's 13 appearances). And they also have the highest scorer in the tournament's history, Raul.

In short, this is one team who don't lack for experience when it comes to the big stage.

Secondly, this wealth of experience permeates all levels of the club. Newly installed boss, Juande Ramos, may have failed at Spurs but his record in Spain (and especially in cup competitions) is up there with the very best.

On the manager's CV are two UEFA Cups with Seville, along with one Super Cup and a Copa Del Rey for the same club. Added to that, the Carling Cup which was won in 2007/08 during his short-lived tenure at White Hart Lane.

This man clearly knows how to prepare, motivate and organise a team to win in cup football - not a skill which all managers possess.

Thirdly, Real's focus is solely on this competition. The likes of Inter Milan, all four British sides, Bayern Munich, Lyon and Barcelona are all in the thick of domestic championship races.

One unforeseen bonus of Real's sluggish start to the Primera Liga season might well be that already 12 points off the pace approaching the mid-point of the season, their aims really have to be all about (i) qualifying for the Champions League next season - surely an easily achievable target as they're only 2 points off 2nd spot and (ii) channeling the majority of their efforts into this season's European competition.

That second point may well give them a little added advantage over several other fancied sides.

Fourthly, the draw.

Of immediate concern is a match-up with Liverpool in the last 16, a tie which could go either way. Real are currently trading as the [2.12] underdogs to qualify but that price alone suggests how close this tie could be. Liverpool have better recent form in the Champions League but their performances in this year's group stage (e.g. two 1-1 draws against Atletico) will give supporters of Los Blancos grounds for optimism.

Also, with Manchester United playing Inter Milan and Chelsea meeting Juventus, if Real do progress to the quarter-finals they will be much shorter than their current mark of [17.5].

Finally, that price of [17.5]. This provides genuine back to lay potential considering the likely draw for the quarter-finals and given all of the above factors, there are much worse bets than Real Madrid for this year's tournament.

Overall, when assessing the chances of Madrid in this year's Champions League, a couple of pertinent factors have to be added to the 'weakness' column - notably, their recent moderate form in the competition (in each of the last four years they've gone out in the last 16) and the fact that this season they've endured a stop-start domestic campaign.

However, the fact remains that a win against Liverpool, which is hardly unthinkable, could pitch them into the quarter-finals with the likes of Panathinaikos, Porto, Villareal or Atletico Madrid - any of whom they would be favourites to defeat over two legs.

Outright success might be one thing but their odds will certainly tumble should they qualify for the next round and that should alert all you traders out there.

As we said at the beginning, don't be too hasty to write off these traditionally strong sides, they always seem to be there or thereabouts come the final reckoning and Madrid may still prove to be the 'real deal' in this year's Champions League.

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