Champions League Betting: Which top sides hate life on the European road?

Champions League / Matthew Walton / 29 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

Wayne Rooney shows his disappointment at being substituted in the latter stages of their win away to Besiktas; a match which the stats suggest they were unlikely to win.

"Add to that the further considerations of away travel, different footballing styles, unfamiliar referees, overly hostile atmospheres, important domestic fixtures following European games and, put quite simply, winning away from home in Europe is a lot harder than most backers think."

Did you know that Manchester United win only 25% of their Champions League matches away from home? "Magical" Matthew Walton tells us which other top sides are guilty of being homesick in Europe but why that isn't always a big worry.

Winning away in the Champions League is no easy matter - even for the top sides in Europe - however, looking at some of the Betfair markets we're often led to believe it's little more than a formality.

This week's matches see Liverpool [1.99] to win in Fiorentina, Inter Milan [1.73] to defeat Rubin Kazan and Chelsea a mere [1.34] to gain all three points away to APOEL Nicosia. All, at least according to the markets, are going to win.

But, and there is a but, in recent seasons Inter have won just 50% of their away games in the group stages, Liverpool have won 46% and Chelsea a mere 40%. Based on these statistics they should all be available at bigger odds - Inter [2.0], Liverpool [2.20] and Chelsea [2.50].

So, as a backer, you have to ask yourself a fundamental question - are they value?

Their supporters on the exchange will say they are indeed worth a bet. These are weak opponents, not European heavyweights, and the short prices merely reflect this fact. In other words, you can't base a betting strategy solely on blanket averages, each match must be studied in isolation.

Fine. Well, just consider the other top teams in Europe for a moment. Barcelona have the best away record of all the leading sides, winning 58% of their games away from the Nou Camp. Next come Bayern Munich (50%), the three sides listed above, then Arsenal (40%), Real Madrid (33%) and, finally, Manchester United (26%).

That's right, Manchester United. They are the worst of all the top sides away from home in Europe. In recent seasons the Red Devils have failed to win away to the likes of Lille, Copenhagen, Sparta Prague and Celtic (twice) - comparable opponents to the three sides who entertain Inter, Liverpool and Chelsea this week.

The crucial point to remember is that although winning a group has its advantages when it comes to the draw for the knock-out phase, the main priority for all these teams is simply to qualify for that stage. Qualify first, win the group second. And how does a team do that ... by winning their home games.

Three wins at home, nine points, and clubs are as good as through. That's why all these sides have a winning home record of 66% and above (in fact Barcelona, Inter and Arsenal are as high as 75%). It's the tried and tested formula of European cup competitions, proven over the decades - don't lose the tie away, make sure you win it at home - and it's replicated here in the Champions League. Within each group of four there are a series of mini home and away ties between each pair of clubs, and by winning each of these in turn a side will naturally progress.

Add to that the further considerations of away travel, different footballing styles, unfamiliar referees, overly hostile atmospheres, important domestic fixtures following European games and, put quite simply, winning away from home in Europe is a lot harder than most backers think. It's not like Chelsea playing at Aston Villa or Bayern Munich visiting Stuttgart. The mindset is different and the match is different.

The answer, contrary to what you might expect, isn't to suggest a betting policy which sets out to lay every short-priced away team in the group stages, regardless of their opponents or their situation. After all, we've already seen Arsenal, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and even Manchester United win on their travels in this year's competition.

The real answer comes from an understanding that bets, even those which appear to be bankers, have to rely upon a little more than subjective opinion. They are as much about information as instinct.

The chances are that one of Inter, Liverpool and Chelsea won't win this week - and when they don't, you now know why. And even should all three gain all three points you still need to ask yourself whether they were really a value bet.