Champions League / James Eastham / 03 November 2009 / Leave a comment

The defending champions won't take the Russian side as lightly as they did when the sides met a fortnight ago, but a better attitude won't necessarily seal victory for the visitors, writes James Eastham. Best bet: Rubin Kazan +1 on the Asian handicap @ [2.02].

Recommended bets: Back Rubin Kazan +1-goal start on the Asian handicap @ 2.02; Barcelona 2-0 winning scoreline @ 9.2; Zlatan Ibrahimovic to score anytime @ 2.0.

Barcelona's 2-1 defeat at home to Rubin Kazan a fortnight ago was one of the biggest shocks in this season's competition and has thrown Group F wide open.

Three sides - Barcelona, Rubin Kazan and Dynamo Kiev - have four points, with Inter a point further behind on three. Nothing is decided, so this game is crucial for both teams.

Barcelona dominated possession when the sides met at the Nou Camp but were surprised by an early Aleksandr Ryazantsev goal and Gökdeniz Karadeniz gave the Russians a 73rd-minute lead after Zlatan Ibrahimovic had equalised shortly after half-time. Sweden international Ibrahimovic hit the bar in the closing minutes, which was as close as Barca came to earning a point.

Did complacency undo the Catalans? They started sluggishly, and never got back into the game and, while we can expect them to be more focused from kick-off this time, Rubin have already proved their mettle at home.

The home side drew 1-1 against Inter at Centralniy stadium on matchday 2 but might easily have won. Jose Mourinho's men were reduced to 10 men and forced to hang on in the final half-hour as Sergei Semak hit the post for the hosts with nine minutes to go. A win there, and Rubin would be alone at the top of the pool.

Yet Barcelona are [1.51] to win this game. That price is unjustifiably short, so I prefer siding with Rubin (who are [8.2] to win) on the handicap. The Russian champions are [2.02] with a +1-goal start on the Asian handicap. I'd have a small saver on a 2-0 Barcelona win at [9.2], but the hosts are certainly good enough to ensure the narrowest margin of defeat.

Ibrahimovic has silenced some of his critics by making an impressive start to his new career in Spain. He's scored eight goals in 11 league and European games, and his power and strength caused Rubin plenty of problems in the first meeting. I'm backing him to find the net again at [2.0].