Champions League Betting: Real Madrid v AC Milan

Champions League / Tobias Gourlay / 20 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

Kaka. He's quite good, you know.

Recommended Bet: Back Real -1.0&-1.5 at [2.08] on the Asian Handicap

Tobias Gourlay is no rabbit in the bright lights of the Spanish capital. He knows exactly what to do.

Glamorous matches are few and far between in the group stages of the Champions League, but Real Madrid versus AC Milan counts as one, even if the Italian fashionistas have turned up looking very last-year (or even older in Ronaldinho's case). It's a faux pas that will probably cost them against Real's 2009/10 collection of preening superstars, who are [1.50] favourites to win, even though Cristiano Ronaldo is absent through injury and Milan won a friendly between the two in Italy last month. There have been no Champions League draws ([4.7]) in the last 10 games at the Bernabeu.

Milan ([7.8] for the win) beat Marseille in France a month ago, but such has been their generally poor start to the season - they even lost at home to FC Zurich three weeks ago - that coach Leonardo might very well have lost his job if they had not beaten Roma at the weekend. On Wednesday evening he must do without Gennaro Gattuso, whose reducers might have been helpful early-bells, and Marco Storari, whose replacement is Dida.

Without Kaka, goals have been hard to come by; the Rossoneri have failed to score in 5/10 competitive fixtures so far this season. The numbers suggest there's value in the [2.52] price for the Real Clean Sheet, but anyone who's recently seen Los Merengues trying to defend set-pieces delivered into their box will have their doubts, and, over a longer period, they've managed just six clean sheets in 19 group-stage games at the Bernabeu.

Real have won 5/5 at home this season, scoring at least three times in each match and keeping three clean sheets. That goal-scoring record goes a long way to explaining the [1.63] price on Over 2.5 Goals, which has paid out in 9/13 group-stage home games (five of those went Over 3.5 Goals). Milan's numbers don't offer much support for such a bet - 5/10 Champions League group-stage games and 2/5 in all competitions this season have been high-scoring enough - and are at best a flimsy basis upon which to stake a mortgage.

Real versus Milan is usually more catwalk than cakewalk, but this time, as far as this column is willing to recommend anything, it recommends Real -1.0&-1.5 at [2.08] on the Asian Handicap. Seven of their eight wins this season have come by two goals or more, and you'll even get half your stake back if they finish only one goal up.

Recommendation: Back Real -1.0&-1.5 at [2.08] on the Asian Handicap