Champions League Betting Preview: Inter Milan v Chelsea

Champions League / Dave Farrar / 23 February 2010 / Leave a Comment

Mario Balotelli aims where Cheryl Cole asked him to. Possibly...

"I can’t believe that Inter are [2.7] to make it through. They are far better than Milan, much more consistent and harder to beat, and anyone who saw Chelsea at Burnley and at Wolves knows that there are issues within the side."

Inter have gone out to English sides at this stage for the last two seasons. But Chelsea have big problems at the back and Dave Farrar can't believe how long the odds are on Jose Mourinho's side reaching the last eight.

For the last three seasons, Inter Milan have fancied themselves for the Champions League, and on each occasion, they have been eliminated at this stage of the competition. English clubs have done the damage in the last two years, and now Chelsea have the chance to break Inter's hearts once again.

This tie is desperately close to call, and with Chelsea not quite as good as they were last season, and Inter a bit better, it's as close to a 50/50 game as there is in the last 16. The tie will come down to individual performances on the night, to mistakes, to moments of brilliance, and so the first betting view that I will take is that the "To Qualify" market is wrong.

I can't believe that Inter are [2.7] to make it through. They are a far better team than Milan, much more consistent and harder to beat, and anyone who saw Chelsea at Burnley and at Wolves will know that, while they are top of the table, there are issues within the side, particularly at the back, which mean that they shouldn't be [1.58] to qualify. Inter must be supported at that price, on grounds of value if nothing else.

Inter's fighting sprit has impressed me this season, and Saturday night's game against Sampdoria summed it up. Down to nine men after half an hour, with both centre halves sent off, they dug in, played 4-3-1, and held on for a point against Serie A's fourth placed team. Not surprisingly, they remind me a lot of Chelsea under Mourinho, and as well as a sturdy system, they have the brilliance required to win big matches.

Samuel Eto'o has a proper pedigree in this competition, and three inspired signings in the shape of Wesley Sneijder, Diego Milito, and latterly Goran Pandev give them real attacking options. Another aspect of the season which leads me to believe that Inter have a real chance is the fact that they are being genuinely pushed for the Serie A title. Not too many teams coast to a domestic win and also emerge victorious in the Champions League (Barcelona twice, in 06 and 09, and Porto, in 04), and Inter's domestic struggles this season put them in a good frame of mind for Wednesday. As La Gazzetta Dello Sport reported on Sunday morning about the Sampdoria match: "A surreal game that Inter always controlled with 11,10 and then 9 men. It's as if instead of Samp there was already Chelsea in front of them."

The best way to prepare for a fight is to have a fight, and Inter are ready. Rather like the Milan v Manchester United match last week, over 2.5 goals is priced up as if this was going to be the cagiest game imaginable, but given the amount of attacking talent on the pitch, is [2.6] really the right price?

Chelsea may well try and do what they did at the Camp Nou in last season's semi-final, but are they defending well enough to pull it off? In the game against Wolves, Petr Cech was Chelsea's man of the match. Substitute Diego Milito for Kevin Doyle and honestly ask yourself whether Chelsea will keep a clean sheet. And then consider whether Inter can keep out Didier Drogba and Nicolas Anelka and you may just convince yourself, as I have, that [2.6] for over 2.5 goals is value in what should be a high class tie, full of high drama.

Recommendations:

Inter to qualify v Chelsea @ [2.7]

Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.6]