Champions League Betting: Marseille v Real Madrid

Champions League / James Eastham / 07 December 2009 / Leave a Comment

Marseille centre-half Souleymane Diawara will pose a threat at corners and free-kicks

Recommended bets: Marseille Draw No Bet to beat Real Madrid @ 2.28; Half-time draw @ 2.22; Souleymane Diawara to score anytime @ 15.0.

Didier Deschamps' side got a spanking at the Bernabeu ealier in the competition, but the outcome is likely to be different this time around, writes James Eastham. Best bet: Marseille Draw No Bet @ [2.28].

Only a win will be good enough for Marseille when they look to claim a place in the last 16 at home to Real Madrid on the final matchday of Group C.

There will be no easing off from the Spaniards, though, because a draw would cost them top spot should AC Milan win at FC Zurich.

Some will expect a winner-takes-all contest, but Didier Deschamps' tactical instincts will ensure that l'OM don't expose themselves unnecessarily against one of the finest attacking sides in the world. The Marseille manager knows that his side's defence (including former Real defender Gabriel Heinze) is vulnerable, evidenced by a record of only three clean sheets in their last 15 games in all competitions.

The first meeting between the sides ended in a 3-0 Real Madrid win at the Bernabeu on September 30. Marseille controlled the first-half, but a mistake by goalkeeper Steve Mandanda allowed Cristiano Ronaldo to score the first of three goals in a seven-minute spell that stunned the French visitors.

Marseille are a better side now. They beat Zurich home and away (6-1 at home) and should have won in Milan a fortnight ago, but two shots against the woodwork and a Brandao miss from four yards meant the game ended 1-1.

I'd give the sides a 50-50 chance of victory, which means the value lies with underdogs Marseille. They are [3.2] to win the game and Real [2.44]. The hosts' inflated price makes them good value to win Draw No Bet at [2.28].

Deschamps' tactical caution leads me to a speculative bet on the half-time draw at [2.22], while I'd back Souleymane Diawara to make up for the penalty he gave away in the first meeting. He's overpriced at around [15.0] to score anytime, given his aerial prowess and record of two goals in 13 games this season.