Champions League Betting: Main threats to come from England and Spain as usual

Champions League / Matthew Walton / 10 December 2009 / Leave a Comment

Wayne Rooney holds off Lionel Messi in last year's Champions League final but can the English teams hold off the Spanish ones to justify their favouritism in the market?

"To choose one country over the other is a difficult task. Both offer club sides with squad strength and depth, along with considerable quality, managerial prowess, European pedigree and trophy-winning experience, both at home and on the European stage."

With the group stages now over and the last 16 known, "Magical" Matthew Walton turns his attentions to the "Winning Nation" market where Spain and England are rightly favourites. But which of the two should we be backing and why?

The stage is now set for the Champions League draw, scheduled for December 18th in Nyon, to determine the first round of knockout matches.

After the completion of the group stage, we're left with 16 of Europe's best sides. Drawn from eight different nations, including seven former winners (and two former finalists), they present a fascinating conundrum for punters - even more so as the final group placings mean the likes of Real Madrid, Manchester United, Chelsea and Barcelona will be pitched against such opponents as Bayern Munich, AC Milan and dangerous wild-cards like Porto.

However, for all the variety in the draw, and uncertainty surrounding it, when you consider the origin of the most likely winner the final decision, it seems, comes down to a choice between the usual suspects - Spain and England. And, let's not forget, in the last 10 years both nations have produced six finalists apiece (Spain W4 L2, England W2 L4).

In the outright market we find Barcelona [4.9], Real Madrid [7.2] and Seville [26.0] representing the Primera Liga whilst the Premier League offers Chelsea [4.8], Manchester United [9.6] and Arsenal [10.5].

How these odds are reflected in the "winning nation" market sees England [2.42] as slight favourites over Spain [2.52].

Such a domination of the market is, however, understandable given the fact these two countries have enjoyed so much success in recent seasons and the fact their main opponents, primarily Italy [7.2] and less conceivably Germany [16.0] and France [22.0], have a modest record by comparison in the competition since 2000.

Moreover, each of the six clubs which come from this leading pair of nations won their group, an important fact, making their draw in December all the more favourable (playing the second leg of their ties at home).

To choose one country over the other is a difficult task. Both offer club sides with squad strength and depth, along with considerable quality, managerial prowess, European pedigree and trophy-winning experience, both at home and on the European stage.

But just consider a few plain facts (1) Spain have won 4 of the last 10 finals (2) Real Madrid and Barcelona have both triumphed twice during this time (3) Chelsea and Arsenal have never won the trophy (4) the possible market distortion due to Chelsea's short price and Seville's long odds in the outright market (5) the unconvincing qualification of both Madrid and Barca - surely, they can only get better as the competition progresses after the Winter break.

Given all these points, added to a slightly bigger price, Spain [2.52] do seem to present the more convincing case for support.

What is also worth considering, so as to make a bet on either Spain or England more attractive, is a calculated split-stake play on the basis of the available odds.

For example, with Seville being very much the poor relation of their Iberian counterparts a better option might well be to split your stakes between Madrid and Barcelona. At the current odds, a 60/40 split of your investment in favour of the shorter price team (Real) would result in a combined odds bet of nigh on [3.00].

In the case of an English team, the close grouping of their prices (and so their perceived winning chance) makes it an awkward decision to drop any one of the three. However, a similar style approach would make result in Chelsea/Manchester United [3.2], Chelsea/Arsenal [3.25] or Manchester United/Arsenal [5.0].

Not an easy call with regards to the English clubs but the loss of Seville from your portfolio, in order to increase your odds about their two Spanish superiors, would appear to make sense.

Any which way you play it, this strategy is certainly worth bearing in mind.

Overall, favouring teams from Spain or England naturally writes off the challenge from Italy, Germany and France (not to mention Portugal, Russia and Greece) but that would seem a logical way to approach a market that still appears to be very much in the grip of this Anglo-Spanish domination.