Champions League / James Eastham / 19 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Liverpool cannot afford anything other than a win over Lyon at Anfield on Tuesday night, but Claude Puel's exciting visitors will pose a stiff challenge, writes James Eastham. Best bet: Liverpool v Lyon over 2.5 goals @ [2.04].

Recommended bets: Liverpool v Lyon over 2.5 goals @ 2.04; 2-1 correct scoreline @ 9.4; Miralem Pjanic to score anytime if he starts @ 6.5.

This is already a vital game for Liverpool, as a defeat or even a draw will leave them in a difficult position in Group C.

The Reds opened their Champions League campaign with a 1-0 home win over Debrecen but their 2-0 defeat at Fiorentina three weeks ago has thrown Rafael Benitez's plans into chaos.

Lyon top the group with maximum points thanks to an excellent home win over Fiorentina (1-0) and a 4-0 victory away to Debrecen that showed Liverpool really should have beaten the Hungarians more convincingly. Lyon are [1.98] to qualify, with Liverpool [2.7] and Fiorentina [5.3], an enormous price considering that, like Liverpool, the Italians are on three points.

Lyon's three-point cushion over Liverpool means they can afford to draw, although Claude Puel's visitors don't have the players or inclination to play for a point. The focal point of their side is the magnificent attacking ability of Lisandro Lopez, Bafetimbi Gomis and Michel Bastos (16 goals in 29 appearances between them in 2009-10), so I fully expect the visitors to get on the scoresheet while also conceding chances.

Both teams to score is available at [1.73] but I'm willing to back over 2.5 goals at [2.04]. The stats are in your favour: 14 of 25 (56% or 1.80) games involving these two sides this season have had over 2.5 goals.

Liverpool are [1.83] to win, with Lyon [5.4] and the draw [3.65]. Those prices look about right to me, so I'd leave the match market alone, and although I don't expect Lyon to lose by more than one goal, there's no value in backing the visitors with a +1-goal start on the Asian handicap at a price of [1.57]. The most likely scoreline appears 2-1, as I'm convinced Liverpool will need to score more than once to win the game, so I'd recommend a speculative wager on that outcome at [9.4].

Fernando Torres and Steven Gerrard will attract most of the attention in the goalscorer markets, but consider Lyon playmaker Miralem Pjanic at [6.5] if he starts. The 19-year-old Bosnia international has taken on greater responsbility this season by filling the playmaker role Brazilian veteran Juninho vacated when he departed for Qatar last June. He's already scored three goals in the competition, including a direct free-kick against Debrecen three weeks ago, so if he's on the team sheet, back him to find the net.

* Liverpool v Lyon, Sky Sports 2, Tuesday (7.45pm kick-off)