Champions League Betting: Juventus v Bayern Munich

Champions League / Tobias Gourlay / 07 December 2009 / Leave a Comment

Juventus and Bayern Munich drew 0-0 in September. The home team will be quite happy with the same again at the Stadio Olimpico.

Recommended Bets: Back Juventus at [1.64] in the Draw No Bet market; back Under 1.5 Goals at [3.05]

Tobias Gourlay previews the Group A clash that will decide who goes forward to the knockout stages with Bordeaux.

A giant must fall in Turin on Tuesday evening. Juventus enter the game with Bayern Munich a point ahead of their opponents, so a draw will be good enough for them to join Bordeaux as the Last 16 entrants from Group A. The Bianconeri are [1.4] to get through to the Last 16. Bayern, obviously, need a win to overtake their hosts, and are [3.5] to beat a team boasting a 16-game unbeaten run at home in the Champions League, which includes victories over the Germans in the group stages of 2004 and 2005.

Juve ([2.32] to win) have won 11/16 and kept clean sheets in the same amount of games in their unbeaten run. But the club was reduced by the Calciopoli scandal in 2006, since when the fraction for both is 3/6.

At the time of writing, you can say 'Yes' to the Juventus Clean Sheet at [2.78]. Prejudice decrees that Italian teams are very good at doing just enough to achieve their aim, especially where that aim is not to score goals of their own, but to prevent the other team from doing so. Bear in mind the following, however: Bayern have scored on 16 of their last 17 Champions League away trips. Among a list of opponents that includes Lyon, AC Milan (twice), Real Madrid, Inter and Chelsea, only Barcelona have shut them out completely.

Eleven of those Bayern games went Over 2.5 Goals, which is as long as [2.34] for this match because of the trend for low goals in Juventus's home games (11/16 Under 2.5 Goals).

Arjen Robben hasn't started a match for Bayern since the reverse fixture (a goalless draw) at the end of September. Franck Ribery started the game immediately following that one, but hasn't been seen since, while Luca Toni has fallen out with the coach, Louis Van Gaal. The team's mediocre form without them has left Van Gaal needing a win to secure his position into the new year. Back-to-back-to-back wins over Maccabi Haifa, Hannover and Borussia Moenchengladbach have prompted young Thomas Muller to talk of a 'fresh start in the air,' but he seems a little premature.

As Stefan Effenburg pointed out, 'This is not the Juve of old.' True, but they did win the Derby d'Italia at home to Inter on Sunday. Neither, Stefan, is this yet the Bayern of old. This column fancies Juventus will be in the draw for the Last 16, but that's hardly the stuff of Nostradamus. Such are the conflicting patterns around this game that it's not clear exactly how they will do it. Your money's probably best put elsewhere, but perhaps there's a touch of value about Juventus at [1.64] in the Draw No Bet market. Its relevance is questionable, as Stefan knows, but history makes a punt on Under 1.5 Goals tempting too, although the recent news that Giorgio Chiellini is out through injury is a concern.