Champions League Betting: Inter v Panathanaikos

Champions League / Dave Farrar / 25 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

Inter have not been convincing of late and Dave Farrar sees no reason why a confident Panathanaikos side cannot get something from their trip to the San Siro.

Inter may have beaten Juventus on Saturday night, but they didn't do it in convincing style, needing a scuffed winner from Sulley Muntari to seal a narrow win. Panathanaikos have won four of their last six games under Henk Ten Cate, and are playing well enough to suggest that they can give Jose Mourinho's team a fright at San Siro.

Panathanaikos are trading at [1.87] with a 1.5 goal start on the Asian Handicap, and that looks to be one of the best bets of Wednesday night. Inter's two home games in the tournament so far have yielded a 1-1 draw against Werder Bremen and a 1-0 win against Anorthosis Famagusta. With the Greeks playing with real confidence after that stunning 3-0 win at Werder Bremen, there's no reason why they can't do just as well as the other two visitors here.

Inter are top of Serie A, and will almost certainly make it through to the knockout stages of the Champions League, but they don't beat teams convincingly, and opposing them on the Asian Handicap this season has been extremely profitable. If you had given each of their opponents this season a 1.5 goal start, then Inter would have successfully conceded that handicap only four times out of seventeen. And all four of those wins by more than one goal came away from the San Siro: at home this season, Inter are yet to beat anyone by more than a single goal.

The reasons for that will be familiar to Chelsea fans. Mourinho's Nerazzurri are happy to do enough to get three points, and it's only away from home, where they can play on the counter attack, that they become a bit more expansive. If you add into the equation the fact that Panathanaikos are unbeaten in their last five away games, the bet becomes even more attractive. And remember that Inter only need to draw to guarantee qualification for the next round. Mourinho will want to avoid needing anything from a trip to Bremen, and so with a cagey approach almost certain, both 0-0 and under 2.5 goals become big runners as well.

Our main bet should be on the Asian Handicap, but under 2.5 goals shouldn't be the outsider in that market, and so I'll recommend an outlay on that as well.

Recommendation: Back Panathanaikos with a 1.5 goal start @ [1.87]

Back under 2.5 goals @ [2.02]