Champions League Betting: Get on Fergie's boys whilst they're still massively over-priced

Champions League / Dave Farrar / 13 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

Dave Farrar tells us why injuries and suspensions to key Barca players make Man Utd a must-bet for the Champions League final and how getting the early value about them will seem like a wise move come the final whistle.

I'm sure that betting.betfair.com will be overflowing with excellent Champions League final advice over the next couple of weeks, but rather than simply having a bet in the week of the final, it would be wise to realise that there are already several Final markets in play on Betfair. And, in the time honoured tradition of these things, there's every chance that there'll be more value available now than there will be on the 27th May, so some ahead of the game punting is in order before all of the best prices are hoovered up.

For all that Chelsea's complaints were somewhat justifiable (although I saw only one clear penalty, rather than the four which have been spoken about) there can be little question that the finalists have been the best two teams in Europe this season, and also two of the most entertaining, so we do have the "right" two teams in Rome.

Unless you want to wilfully go against the general view, which is sometimes the best way to approach gambling, then the [2.08] which is currently available on Betfair for there to be over 2.5 goals in the final looks like fantastic value.

The reason that this price is so big is the perception that finals tend to be cagey games, with both sides too scared to make a mistake that could cost them the game. The fact of the matter is, though, that in recent years Champions League finals have been relatively high scoring affairs, with 7 of the last 10 finals producing over 2.5 goals.

And remember, these two clubs are above average in terms of scoring goals. Barcelona's 35 League games this season so far have produced a total of 134 goals, an average of 3.82, while Manchester United's 35 have produced 88 goals, an average of 2.51. Both of those statistics should lead us to taking the [2.08], which will almost certainly be shorter nearer kick off.

There is a danger that Sir Alex Ferguson will try to "do a Chelsea" on Barcelona, but I think that is highly unlikely, as Barca's defensive problems and a matter of pride in a high profile game will lead Ferguson to try and outplay Pep Guardiola's team.

Remember, this is a man who has always been successfully obsessed by winning, but increasingly with a nod to style as he has grown in experience. I simply can't believe that Ferguson will send a stifling United team out on the 27th May; it would go against everything in which he believes, and would not be the best way to win a second Champions League in a row. With Barcelona defensively vulnerable, Manchester United must take advantage.

And that leads us neatly onto the outright prices for the final, which, despite having corrected themselves over the weekend, still look wrong. You can back either Barcelona or United at [2.76] in the match odds market, but I feel very strongly that United ought to be favourites.

Their form has been far more impressive in recent weeks, and they simply don't have the injury and suspension problems to deal with that are currently taxing Guardiola. It's worth remembering that Barcelona will be without Eric Abidal and Dani Alves through suspension, and probably Andres Iniesta and Thierry Henry through injury, and the last three names on that list have all been key components of Barca's success this season.

They are still very good, but simply not the same team when those three aren't involved. United have much greater strength in depth than their rivals, and the full strength team which Sir Alex Ferguson should be able to field should be shorter than [2.76]. Don't let your perceptions of fate and Barcelona's name being on the trophy get in the way of logic.Much though I'd love Barcelona to win the Champions League, the prices are plain wrong and United must be backed.

My final thought at this early stage of the build up is that I hope that Roberto Rosetti is given the honour of refereeing the Champions League final in his own country. In my opinion, Rosetti was correct to send off Darren Fletcher in the second leg of the semi final, as he applied the laws of the game, as he must do, whether it is fair or not. In the process of nicking the ball away from Cesc Fabregas, Fletcher fouled the Arsenal man, and because it was a denial of a clear goalscoring opportunity, Rosetti had to send him off. If anything is unfair, it's the law, rather than the referee, and Rosetti really shouldn't pay for doing his job much better than his Norwegian counterpart the following night.