Champions League / Tobias Gourlay / 03 November 2009 / Leave a comment

Tobias Gourlay is unusually excited by the Italian champions' visit to Eastern Europe.

Recommended Bets: Back Over 2.5 Goals at [2.16]; back Both Teams to Score at [1.68]

Group F was supposed to provide Inter and Barcelona a straightforward passage to the Last 16 of this season's Champions League. Few expected just one point to separate all four of its constituents at the halfway stage.

Two weeks ago Dinamo Kiev twice took the lead at the Giuseppe Meazza before finally drawing 2-2 with Inter. For the reverse fixture at the Valery Lobanovsky, the Ukrainians are [3.85] outsiders to win on their own ground. The Serie A champions are [2.20], even though they have won only one of their last six away games in this competition.

Despite its location on the periphery of the Champions League catchment area, Kiev was once an easy place to go. The White-Blues lost five and drew one of their group-stage games in 2006/07 and 2007/08. Then, last season, they went W1-D1-L1, and in September they began the current campaign with a 3-1 win at home to Rubin Kazan. Dinamo seem to be improving, but four is not an adequate sample size, so it is perhaps a little early to countenance a lay of the visitors.

Despite the poor win-loss record, Dinamo have scored in nine of the 10 games, a record that raises interest in saying No to the Inter Clean Sheet at [1.47]. After all, the Milan club has failed to shut-out its hosts on 12/16 group-stage away trips since 2004/05.

Even more interesting: Dinamo and their opponents have both scored in eight of those 10 aforementioned games. You can back Both Teams to Score in Wednesday evening's match at [1.68], which makes sense when you consider that it has also paid out in three of the four group-stage away games Inter have played under Jose Mourinho. A little more money in the markets should give a better price closer to kick-off.

The Portuguese has been without his best strikers for parts of October, but Diego Milito and Samuel Eto'o should both make the trip east to help the Nerazzurri, who have scored themselves on 13/16 group-stage away trips since 2004/05. Wesley Sneijder will stay in Italy, but Mario Balotelli is an in-form replacement for the crafty Dutchman.

Finally, what of the goal markets? The two teams' good scoring records make Over 2.5 Goals appealing at [2.16]. It has been a winning bet in 8/10 matches in Kiev since 2006/07 and, although the home side are not conceding willy-nilly any more, they are without their first-choice goalkeeper and it is this column's firmest recommendation. If you are convinced both teams will score, it provides useful cover for a punt on the 1-1 Correct Score at [7.0].

Tags: Champions League Betting, Champions League Tips, Dinamo Kiev, European Football Betting, Inter, Tobias Gourlay