Champions League Betting: CSKA Moscow v Sevilla

Champions League / Dave Farrar / 23 February 2010 / Leave a Comment

Fredi Kanoute is more than capable of filling the void left by the injured Luis Fabiano

"The question is how best to support Sevilla. There is a chance that they will be happy with a draw, particularly one which involves an away goal, and so backing them to win the game at [2.66] may not be the best approach."

We all know a trip to Moscow in February isn't for the faint-hearted but not only does Dave Farrar expect Sevilla to come back with at least a draw, he thinks they're value to go on and win the whole thing.

In terms of the outright Champions league market, I think that Sevilla are still the value bet at [30.0], and I fully expect them to qualify for the last eight ahead of CSKA Moscow. Sevilla are in great form in La Liga, and prepared for a trip to Russia with a 3-1 win in Mallorca, one of the best home teams in the division.

The Spaniards are primed and ready for a serious assault on the biggest trophy in Europe. We can't quite describe the weekend as the perfect preparation for Sevilla, because their best player, Luis Fabiano, was injured and will miss the first leg. Diego Capel is also out, but Fredi Kanoute is a more than able replacement for Fabiano, and I simply don't think that CSKA are in the same class as Sevilla.

It's tempting to think that the icy conditions will play into the hands of the Russians, and it would be naïve to suggest that they're not an advantage, but it was interesting to hear a few of the CSKA players say this week that none of us should expect Sevilla to freeze and be incapable of dealing with the cold. That didn't sound to me like a team which was brimming with confidence.

CSKA haven't played a competitive game since December, and while that means they'll be rested, it also takes away a bit of that useful match toughness, and we saw in last week's Europa League how much that affected Shakhtar Donetsk. Granted, Rubin Kazan won easily, but then Hapoel Tel Aviv were the perfect example of a team which let the conditions get to them. Sevilla will not let that happen.

The question is how best to support Sevilla. There is a chance that they will be happy with a draw, particularly one which involves an away goal, and so backing them to win the game at [2.66] may not be the best approach. They're also short enough to qualify at [1.43], and again that's a price which is best left alone. The best way to get behind Sevilla is to back them to win the Champions League outright, as I believe that we'll get a run for our money, and in terms of the game on Wednesday night, the draw at [3.3] makes best appeal in the Match Odds market.

Given that all but one of CSKA's Group Stage games featured over 2.5 goals, the [2.4] available is worth a second look, particularly as it's likely to be an open game. CSKA know that they have to take a healthy lead to Spain, and I believe they'll go for it, leaving themselves potentially vulnerable to a very skilful counter attacking side.

If Luis Fabiano was playing, then I'd be advising a big bet on the overs, without him then it may pay to be a little more cautious. Sevilla will win the tie, I'm almost certain of that, and I expect them to hang around in the Champions League for a lot longer than many people seem to think.

RECOMMENDATIONS

DRAW in Match Odds Market @ [3.3]

Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.4]

SEVILLA to win the Champions League @ [30.0]