Champions League Betting: Celtic v Dinamo Moscow

Champions League / James Eastham / 28 July 2009 / Leave a Comment

Celtic will be relying heavily on Scott McDonald for goals this season

Recommended bets: Celtic to beat Dinamo Moscow @ 1.81; Celtic v Dinamo Moscow under 2.5 goals @1.69; Celtic to keep a clean sheet @ 2.2.

The Bhoys have excelled in pre-season and have one of the best home records in Europe to fall back on as they go into their Champions League third qualifying round first leg against the Russians, writes James Eastham. Best bet: Celtic to beat Dinamo Moscow @ 1.81.

If you're unsure how important this game is to Celtic and their recently-appointed manager Tony Mowbray, just ask Gordon Strachan.

In his first competitive game in charge of The Bhoys in July 2005, Strachan watched aghast as his side lost 5-0 to Slovakian champions Artmedia Bratislava in a Champions League qualifier, a result that sent his gobsmacked players crashing out of the tournament before it had properly begun. The former Coventry City and Southampton boss subsequently led Celtic to the last 16 of the competition in consecutive seasons (2006-07 and 2007-08), but his reputation never really recovered from that nightmarish debut.

Mowbray knows the price of failure, then, but if pre-season form is any sort of guide, Celtic are in the best possible shape. They've won three and drawn one of their four friendlies, scoring 10 goals and conceding none to make life as comfortable as possible for Mowbray in his first few weeks in the job. Following a 3-0 win over Brisbane Roar in Australia and a 0-0 draw against Cardiff City in the Welsh capital earlier this month, they won the Wembley Cup last weekend by beating African champions Al-Ahly on Friday night (goals from Donati, McDonald 2, Maloney and Killen) before seeing off Spurs 2-0 (Killen and Samaras) on Sunday afternoon.

Summer signings Landry Nguemo (who arrived from French side Nancy) and Marc-Antoine Fortune (Nancy via Mowbray's former club WBA on loan) were left out of the Spurs game but both will be available against Dinamo Moscow - although Mowbray says the crowd will have as big a part to play.

"With total respect to the players who have played for Celtic over the last eight years in Europe, I would suggest that the proud home record the club enjoys has a lot to do with the supporters. Of course, it's up to the players on the pitch to produce the goods and win matches, but the feeling and confidence they get from the passion in the stands plays a big part," said the 45-year-old.

That proud home record Mowbray refers to is astonishing: since a 1-0 qualifying defeat to Ajax in 2001, Celtic have won 17 of 24 home games in the Champions League, beating the likes of Juventus, Lyon, Manchester United and AC Milan along the way. Their only two defeats in those 24 matches came against Barcelona, which tells you everything you need to know about Celtic's record against opponents of Dinamo Moscow's calibre.

The visitors are fifth in the Russian League, only four points behind leaders Rubin Kazan, and claimed third spot behind Rubin Kazan and CSKA Moscow in last year's final standings. Yet Dinamo have no recent European pedigree. Their last appearance in any continental competition dates back to 2001-02, and on that occasion their Uefa Cup campaign hit the buffers in the other half of Glasgow when they lost 3-1 at Ibrox before being thrashed 4-1 in front of their own fans.

Dinamo's only advantage is that they're mid-way through their domestic league season, but Celtic's brilliant European record is a far bigger factor. The hosts look slightly overpriced to me at [1.81]. I would also consider under 2.5 goals, since 17 of Celtic's last 24 European home games (or 17 of 22, if you exclude those defeats against Barca) have had under 2.5 goals, although the price of [1.69] will be too short for some bettors. Don't rule out under 1.5 goals, either: 14 of those 24 games (including three of five qualifiers) have featured one or no goals. If under 1.5 goals becomes available before kick-off, the price will be around [3.0].

A fourth and final betting option is Celtic to keep a clean sheet. Their defending has been excellent in pre-season, and once again their home record in Europe stands up against anybody: Celtic have shut out the opposition in 17 of 24 games over the past eight seasons, keeping clean sheets in their last three qualifiers. If a market becomes available before kick-off, take a price of [2.2] or bigger.