Champions League / Tobias Gourlay / 02 November 2009 / Leave a comment

Tobias Gourlay has difficulty separating the French from the Germans.

Recommended Bets: Back the Draw at [3.75]; back Under 2.5 Goals at [1.97]

A fortnight ago, Bayern Munich couldn't hold onto a lead in France and lost 2-1 to Bordeaux, who could afford to have two penalties saved. The three points put the French champions on top of Group A, while the Germans dropped out of the qualifying positions to third.

Bayern are [1.86] favourites to win this Tuesday, but coach Louis Van Gaal must do without Thomas Muller and Daniel Van Buyten - both are serving bans for red cards earned in the reverse fixture - for a match in which injury leaves him bereft of Arjen Robben and World Player of the Year candidate Franck Ribery. Muller, a versatile forward, has seven goals from his last 12 matches, while Van Buyten, a central defender, has already scored five times this season.

The Bavarians' 7-1 clobbering of Sporting Lisbon in March is widely remembered, but Van Gaal has been tinkering since then - Oliver Kahn told him off about it as recently as last week - and they have scored three times or more in only 1/6 Champions League and Bundesliga games at the Allianz Arena this season. Bearing in mind the absences, might Under 2.5 Goals at [1.97] be preferable to Over 2.5 at [2.02]?

Bordeaux will be much closer to full strength, but they come with some modest away form. They have lost two in a row on the road in Ligue One - it's their perfect home form that keeps them top - and they were also beaten in 2/3 on last season's Champions League travels. Their 1-1 draw with Juventus in Turin earlier this campaign is creditable and more recent. Perhaps there's value in backing the draw again here ([3.75]). After all, Bayern have drawn 6/12 at home in this competition since the beginning of 2006 and 3/6 since the start of last season.

The other three results have been home wins. Indeed, Die Roten have lost only 1/18 in the last five years, and in the Bundesliga they are W3-D2-L0 this season, so it's difficult to approve a bet on the away side. It's not the strongest recommendation you'll receive this week, but, without any firm trends elsewhere, this column suggests the draw. A single point would disappoint Bayern much more than their visitors, but defeat is probably too damaging to risk in the pursuit of victory, should the match be in the balance with just a few minutes to go.

Tags: Bayern Munich, Bordeaux, Champions League Betting, Champions League Tips, European Football Betting, Louis Van Gaal, Tobias Gourlay