Champions League / James Eastham / 09 March 2009 / Leave a comment

It's easy to assume a 1-1 draw from the first leg virtually guarantees Bareclona will go through against Lyon. But James Eastham isn't so sure and points to Barca's tendency to concede goals and Lyon's superb away record. Best bet: back Over 2.5 goals @ [1.86].

Lyon surprised many (not this column, I hasten to add) by earning a 1-1 draw in the first leg a fortnight ago - but the task of causing an upset by knocking out the tournament favourites (Barca are [4.1]) appears beyond them if you look at the prices.

The Catalans are [1.43] to win in 90 minutes and [1.18] to qualify for the next round, while Lyon are trading at [9.8] to win in regular time and [6.4] to reach the last eight for the first time in three seasons.

Are those odds justified? I don't think so, even though it's impossible to argue against Barca's status as pre-match jollies. In terms of talent and technique, there's a gulf in quality between the sides, but Lyon's attitude and experience mean their chances of getting through are bigger than the prices suggest.

Barca excel at home

I'm not denying there are obvious reasons to back the hosts, notably a slight improvement in form since the first leg. Barcelona suffered an unexpected 2-1 home defeat to city rivals Espanyol just three days before their trip to Stade de Gerland two weeks ago but warmed-up in far better fashion this time thanks to a 2-0 home win over Athletic Bilbao. Lyon's form has moved in the other direction: after 12 unbeaten games since mid-December they lost consecutive matches against Lille last week, firstly in the Coupe de France (3-2) and then in the league on Saturday night (2-0).

Barca's home form is impossible to ignore, too: 17 wins in 22 matches and an average of 2.91 goals per game is a formidable record. The only two visiting teams to have won at the Nou Camp were their Group C opponents Shakhtar Donetsk - when Barca were safely through to this stage - and Espanyol.

Lyon superb away

But Lyon have genuine grounds for confidence. Barcelona have kept only nine clean sheets in 22 home games and conceded at least one goal in all three group fixtures. Lyon are excellent on the road - Claude Puel's side won two and drew one of their three group-stage games while 'OL' have a remarkable European away record of W12-D5-L4 (57% win rate) over the past five seasons.

Injury issues are about all-square - Lyon striker Karim Benzema has a sore hip and looks less than 100% fit (although he should start) while Barcelona captain Carles Puyol joins Eric Abidal on the sidelines following an ankle injury he picked up at the weekend. So Lyon's main source of goals may move less than fluidly; but Barca have only 50% of their regular back four available.

The Catalans: too short

The chances of Barcelona going through are undeniably strong - but not as strong as their odds suggest. The 90-minute draw at [4.9] would be my selection in the Match Odds market, but if you feel Josep Guardiola's side will win without needing extra-time, then 2-1 [9.0] and 3-1 [12.5] correct-score options appeal more than an odds-on home victory because Lyon's long-term away stats are so good.

My headline bet is over 2.5 goals at [1.86] because the visitors, needing to score to stay alive, will sit back for 45 minutes at the most. The game will open up after the break, and there's a fair chance of a first-half goal as Barcelona will play their usual attacking football and Lyon will look to take advantage of corners and free-kicks. Given Lyon's excellent away record in the competition and Barcelona's formidable home goals stats, the price on overs should be shorter.

Cris the value pick

Juninho - scorer of Lyon's goal in the first leg - is worth considering at [6.5] to find the net again (odds are to score at any time, not first goalscorer) because he remains the best free-kick taker in the world. Lyon centre-half Cris ([21.0]) is the stand-out selection if you're looking for a long-priced goalscorer because he has the attributes to exploit Puyol's absence in the air from dead-ball situations: the stats show the Brazil international's price is too big: he's scored a goal every 11.6 games in Ligue 1 (139 appearances, 12 goals) and every 10.7 games in Europe (32 games, three goals) since joining the French champions five years ago. Slicing Cris' price in half would give you get a better reflection of his chances of netting.

So Cris, Juninho and over 2.5 goals are the picks - but if you're the sort of bettor who looks for value, then Lyon cannot be overlooked at [6.4] to qualify. This is a speculative option, but the chances of the visitors earning a 1-1 draw to force extra-time or a 2-2 draw to put out the hosts in normal time are bigger than the odds indicate. For that reason, I'm backing tournament favourites Barca to suffer an early exit.

* James Eastham has made 7.36pts profit (after 5% commission) from 73.5pts staked (10.0% ROI) on French clubs in all competitions this season.