African Cup of Nations Betting: The semi-finals beckon

African Cup of Nations / Alsy / 07 February 2008 / Leave a Comment

Alsy runs through the form as Ivory Coast take on the holders Egypt and Cameroon face the host nation, Ghana...

The goals have flowed in Ghana with the Africa Cup of Nations providing enough excitement to match the colour and passion in the stands. In twenty-eight matches only two games have ended scoreless and now we have four semi-finalists who can justifiably hope to win the tournament with the so-called 'underdogs' in both games looking to spring a surprise.

Firstly, I need to hold my hands up and admit that my pre-tournament tip of Nigeria was badly short of the mark. A case of "water, water everywhere but not a drop to drink" their numerous 'big name' strikers failed to live up to their European pay cheques, managing a solitary Yakubu goal from open play. Now, having coached two talented national teams (Scotland and Nigeria) to underachieving mediocrity, Bertie Vogts is definitely off my Christmas card list.

The current semi-final coaches are held in much higher regard and, in the case of Ghana and Cameroon, have the rare distinction of having previously been in charge of their opponents.
Cameroon coach Otto Pfister took Ghana to second place in the 1992 Africa Cup of Nations while Ghana coach Claude LeRoy won the title with Cameroon in 1988. With such an air of familiarity it's unlikely that both teams will adopt a positive approach.

As hosts, Ghana will be expected to take the game to their opponents. You can back them at [2.0] to win their semi-final even without their suspended captain John Mensah. The home crowd will demand a high-octane performance and Pfister will be prepared for a blitzkrieg attack so Cameroon will set out to frustrate the Black Stars and hush the crowd. Every coach left in the tournament will have prepared tactics for playing Ghana and few of them include expansive football. "I will tactically paralyse the Black Stars in Thursday's match," promised Pfister. "I have a track record in this tournament and my primary objective is to beat Ghana."

Cameroon has steadily improved throughout this tournament and look in superb physical condition. They will not be worried by the extra day's rest afforded to Ghana and know that in players like Song and Geremi they have plenty of experience. Geremi remains an ongoing threat from set pieces and when you factor in Samuel Eto'o, Cameroon definitely carry the greater threat on the break. You can back Cameroon to win at [4.7], but if you fancy a Ghana victory I'd back a 2-1 scoreline at a tempting [10.0].

On the other side of the draw Ivory Coast remains the favourites to win the tournament. You can back them at [2.18] to lift the trophy but they must beat the holders Egypt first. The Pharaohs defeated the Ivory Coast in the last final but I give them little chance of repeating the feat without home support. You can back them to win at a generous [6.6] which looks an attractive outside bet.

Ivory Coast has the better players but Egypt is a compact side who are well drilled - they will feel more than ready to deal with the Ivorians who will be without Kolo Toure in defence. Nevertheless, Egypt is likely to be occupied with the goal-scoring threat of Drogba and Kalou and, while I expect the Egyptians to put up an impressive all-round display, overall they look outgunned (especially with striker Mohamed Zidan struggling for fitness). The Elephants have only conceded one goal this tournament scoring 13 along the way, but for once I don't expect a glut of goals and would back Ivory Coast to win 1-0 at [7.0].

One final thought - many have predicted that Ghana and Ivory Coast will meet in the final but I can't shake the feeling that a semi-final upset is somehow on the cards. Cameroon to win at [4.7] is looking increasingly attractive for anyone willing to bet against the formbook.