January Transfer Window: Where will Arshavin end up and who else will be on the move?

About the beautiful game / Dave Farrar / 27 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

Keen shoppers aren't the only people looking for sales in January, it's also the opening of the football January transfer window, Dave Farrar tells us. Which will lead to such questions as: how will Huntelaar and Diarra settle in at Real Madrid and who is going to buy Andrei Arshavin?

The January transfer window is an absolute dream for journalists: starved of copy in what can be a fairly arid month, there's suddenly so much more than football to write about. You'll read a lot of nonsense over the course of the next month, but also one or two things that might be true, and that might significantly change outright markets for both domestic leagues and for the Champions League.

The team which already seems certain to be significantly stronger in the New Year is Real Madrid. We already know that Real have signed Klaas Jan Huntelaar from Ajax, and Lassana Diarra from Portsmouth. Diarra's presence as one of the midfield anchormen will be a major boost for a side which is currently trading at [18.0] to win the Champions League and at roughly the same price for La Liga. If the Frenchman settles at the Bernabeu, then he will certainly be a massive asset to Real, but I'm not convinced about Huntelaar.

His domestic scoring record is impressive, with 34 goals in 46 games for Heerenveen followed by 76 in 94 for Ajax, but the rather clichéd question that you always have to ask about any Eredivisie striker on the move is will they be the next Ruud Van Nistelrooy or another Mateja Kezman?

Kezman scored 105 goals in 122 games for PSV Eindhoven, but since then has only got 33 in 113 for Chelsea, Atletico Madrid, Fenerbahce and Paris St Germain. In contrast, Van Nistelrooy was nearly a goal a game man at PSV and has continued that excellent form for both Manchester United and Real. Huntelaar is a better player than Kezman, but always seems to give the impression of someone who scores his goals in bursts, and misses chances. Two goals from five chances in a game against NAC Breda is very different from two from two against a team like Valencia. Don't back Real to win the Champions League on the basis of Huntelaar.

When thinking about who might end up where the next name that springs to mind is Andrei Arshavin: if agent and player are to be believed, then he is definitely leaving Zenit in January, and he will only go to a club with serious money. The rumours about him arriving at Arsenal could be wide of the mark, but fans of the Premier League in England can allow themselves to dream: of course there's a worry that Arshavin would follow the long list of Eastern Europeans who would be too lightweight both physically and mentally to be successful abroad, but just to see this ethereal talent on view in England's most attractive team would be fascinating. If Arsene Wenger could get it to work, then he could lead them to a Cup competition.

Not the Champions League, as he'll be cup-tied, but Arsenal for the FA Cup at [8.0] may not be the worst bet of the year. Arshavin has long been linked with Barcelona, but Pep Guardiola knows that such a specific talent, and a potentially disruptive influence, would be up there with the signings of Rodney Marsh and Faustino Asprilla as title-losing moments.

The reality of the transfer window is that the big clubs will most likely stick with what they already have: it's very hard to get any kind of value in January, and Sir Alex Ferguson has already made it pretty plain that Manchester United are happy with their squad. Of the other Champions League contenders, Chelsea may add a player like Tuncay, Inter Milan are almost certain to move for someone, possibly involving a swap deal with Ricardo Quaresma, and I'd go so far as to say that if Inter don't get younger legs in their midfield (Udinese's Gokhan Inler springs to mind) then they should be laid in the Champions League outright market at [9.4] and to make it through against Manchester United at [2.24].

I'll finish with a name to watch in the next transfer window and some significant news regarding him this week. Marek Hamsik of Napoli is one of the best young midfield players that I've ever seen, and last week he announced that he is happy at the San Paolo and won't be going anywhere in the summer. This is similar to a Chariman's vote of confidence in a manager: Hamsik will be gone before the end of July. Watch whoever he signs for closely and look to back them in the relevant markets. This kid could end up being the best of the last ten years, and he'll make you smile and make you money in equal measure. Happy New Year.