Football Bets: Unpredictable and passionate - we give you the Copa Libertadores

About the beautiful game / Jonathan Wilson / 19 March 2009 / Leave a comment

As we approach the half-way phase of the group stages, Jonathan Wilson tells us why this is a competition worth watching and one which Martin Palermo's Boca Juniors, are desperate to win.

There is no international tournament so marvellously unpredictable as the Copa Libertadores. The last 20 years have produced 15 different winners (and only two multiple winners, Boca Juniors and Sao Paulo), from seven different countries, and even now, at the half-way point of the group stage of this season's competition, little is yet decided.

Sao Paulo, the favourites, look well set to progress after a goal from Borges six minutes before half-time gave them victory away to Defensor Sporting, second in the Uruguayan league, on Wednesday. With what will probably prove their hardest game out of the way - although they yet to go to Medellin to play Independiente - they lead their group by three points, and have played a game fewer than Independiente.

Boca Juniors, after stumbling in the Apertura before Christmas, are widely fancied, but they have had an indifferent start domestically, struggling with injuries to key defenders and the departures of Jesus Datolo to Napoli and the full-back Jonatan Maidana to Metalist
Kharkiv.

And then there is the curious position of Juan Roman Riquelme, now retired from international football after a barely comprehensible spat with his national coach Diego Maradona. With the two great number tens of their history at loggerheads, nobody was quite sure how Boca's fans would react. Although there was a song noting how they had been good friends at Boca, there was also in evidence genuine anger at Maradona during Sunday's game against Argentinos Juniors (for whom both Maradona and Riquelme also played). Riquelme seemed to be inspired by the tension, and was excellent in a 3-0 win against admittedly weak opposition.

He scored again on Wednesday, netting a penalty as Boca roused themselves in the final half hour to beat Guarani. They were a goal down before Riquelme, and the substitutes Martin Palermo and Rodrigo Palacios - the great triumvirate at last reunited - all struck within the space of 20 minutes. That makes it three wins out of three for Carlos Ischia's side, although the sense is that they have not yet found their rhythm.

The only other team with a 100 per cent record is Libertad of Paraguay. An own goal from Gaston Aguirre gave them a 1-0 win over San Lorenzo on Wednesday, guaranteeing their place in the last 16, and adding to what has - Boca aside - generally been a miserable start to
the competition for the Argentinian teams. Lanus's 2-1 home defeat to Everton of Chile on Tuesday leaves them bottom of their group on two points, and needing to win their final two games to have any chance of progressing.

River Plate could improve Argentina's record on Thursday, but recently have become the definition of inconsistency. They won the Clausura in 2008, and then immediately finished bottom of the Apertura. Having replaced Diego Simeone - messiah or buffoon, who can say? - with Nestor Gorosito, their form has stabilised, and they have lost just one of six in the 2009 Clausura. On Thursday evening they face a testing trip across the estuary to face Nacional in Montevideo as they look to recover some pride. They do have happy memories of El Bolso, having won 3-1 there on their last visit in 2005.

Nacional's domestic season is also in its infancy, but seven points from three games so far suggests they are in form. Even more impressive has been their Libertadores form. With the forward Alexander Medina in fine form, despite being used mainly as a substitute domestically, they have been rewarded for the expansive approach instilled by Gerardo Pelusso with victories over the Peruvian side San Martin and the Paraguayan team Nacional. River are [3.25] to win, with Nacional [2.46]. The draw is a [3.3] chance.

Thursday's other game sees Estudiantes de la Plata firm favourites [1.52] to beat Deportivo Quito [8.0], despite the fact they lost 1-0 to the Ecuadorian side last week, and need a win to climb above them into second in the group. A share of the spoils trades at [4.2]. Estudiantes' domestic form isn't great either, having lost four of six in the Apertura, leading to the
resignation last week of Leonardo Astrada. He has been replaced by Alejandro Sabella, who won two Argentine titles with the club as a player after returning from spells in England with Sheffield United and Leeds.

For now, such heights seem a long way off; his first task is to steady the ship and restore some much-needed Argentinian pride.